Incumbents on the edge: Who’s at risk in May 12 Bahamas election

As the Bahamas heads toward May 12, incumbents across the political spectrum are under pressure.

A long list of sitting MPs—including Myles Laroda, Michael Darville, Patricia Deveaux, Wayde Watson, Wayne Munroe, Keith Bell, Fred Mitchell and others– are defending seats that are far from secure.

The reason is that many of these constituencies are not traditional strongholds but are swing seats.

In Bahamian politics, swing seats are constituencies that regularly shift between the Progressive Liberal Party and Free National Movement depending on the national mood, turnout and the strength of the candidate.

That means incumbency alone may not be enough to survive a changing political climate.

Several seats now appear especially vulnerable.

North Eleuthera, for example, historically leans FNM. Incumbent Sylvanus Petty broke that pattern in 2021, but the constituency’s voting history suggests the FNM could reclaim it this election cycle.

Southern Shores presents another complicated dynamic. Incumbent Leroy Major is now running as an independent after previously winning under the PLP banner. But constituencies that frequently flip between the PLP and FNM are often difficult for independents, particularly without major party machinery behind them.

The same challenge faces Hubert Minnis in Killarney. While Minnis is now contesting the election as an independent candidate, potentially weakening the advantage that once supported him, the seat has historically remained loyal to the FNM.

Meanwhile, Iram Lewis faces a difficult path in Central Grand Bahama after leaving the FNM to run with the Coalition of Independents in an area traditionally dominated by the FNM base.

May 12 may be about whether incumbents can survive in constituencies where loyalty to party is temporary and the national mood changes quickly.