csjreport

Shanendon Cartwright, deputy leader of the Free National Movement, is seeking to capture the newly created St James constituency, a seat formed by the Boundaries Commission and one that carries no established voting history.

Cartwright is not new to political success. He previously served two terms as MP for St Barnabas from 2017 to 2026, building a reputation among many constituents for strong visibility and active representation. His support base in that area became one of his strengths, with many voters openly praising his accessibility and constituency work.

Now St James presents a different challenge.

Unlike traditional constituencies with clear party patterns, St James is a newly configured seat made up of sections from Killarney and Golden Isles.

The constituency has no voting history and no tested party or candidate loyalty.

This election becomes a test of whether Cartwright’s appeal is transferable beyond the boundaries of St Barnabas.

As deputy leader of the FNM, the stakes are even higher. A victory would reinforce his standing within the party and strengthen perceptions that he remains one of the FNM’s key future figures.

Winning a brand-new constituency would also suggest that his support is tied not just to constituencies, but to his personal political brand.

A loss, however, would trigger harder questions.

Can a deputy leader afford to lose a new seat in a general election?

It remains to be seen whether Cartwright can prove he is politically strong enough to win beyond St Barnabas, which first made him successful.

Central and South Abaco could be one of the more unpredictable races of the May 12 election because there is no incumbent.

Former Progressive Liberal Party MP John Pinder, who won the constituency in 2021, is not returning to defend the seat. Instead, the PLP has placed its hopes in candidate Bradley Fox, who will face Jeremy Sweeting of the Free National Movement and Coalition of Independents candidate Crystal Williams.

In 2021, Pinder secured the seat with 766 votes, narrowly defeating the FNM’s candidate, who received 693 votes. The Coalition of Independents candidate got 258 votes.

The close margin in 2021 can suggest this constituency is competitive.

Historically, the constituency has leaned toward the FNM. From 2007 to 2012, and again in 2017, the seat was represented by FNM MPs, including Edison Key and later James Albury. That may give the FNM confidence that the seat is recoverable, particularly in an election where the national mood and turnout could heavily influence swing constituencies.

For the PLP, the challenge will be proving that support for the party in 2021 was not tied solely to Pinder personally, but can be transferred to Fox.

Meanwhile, the Coalition of Independents faces the same challenge that confronts most third-party movements in Bahamian politics, turning frustration into actual victory. Winning seats outright remains difficult in a political system still dominated by the PLP and FNM.

As the Bahamas heads toward May 12, incumbents across the political spectrum are under pressure.

A long list of sitting MPs—including Myles Laroda, Michael Darville, Patricia Deveaux, Wayde Watson, Wayne Munroe, Keith Bell, Fred Mitchell and others– are defending seats that are far from secure.

The reason is that many of these constituencies are not traditional strongholds but are swing seats.

In Bahamian politics, swing seats are constituencies that regularly shift between the Progressive Liberal Party and Free National Movement depending on the national mood, turnout and the strength of the candidate.

That means incumbency alone may not be enough to survive a changing political climate.

Several seats now appear especially vulnerable.

North Eleuthera, for example, historically leans FNM. Incumbent Sylvanus Petty broke that pattern in 2021, but the constituency’s voting history suggests the FNM could reclaim it this election cycle.

Southern Shores presents another complicated dynamic. Incumbent Leroy Major is now running as an independent after previously winning under the PLP banner. But constituencies that frequently flip between the PLP and FNM are often difficult for independents, particularly without major party machinery behind them.

The same challenge faces Hubert Minnis in Killarney. While Minnis is now contesting the election as an independent candidate, potentially weakening the advantage that once supported him, the seat has historically remained loyal to the FNM.

Meanwhile, Iram Lewis faces a difficult path in Central Grand Bahama after leaving the FNM to run with the Coalition of Independents in an area traditionally dominated by the FNM base.

May 12 may be about whether incumbents can survive in constituencies where loyalty to party is temporary and the national mood changes quickly.

Once known as a leader of the Democratic National Alliance, Arinthia Komolafe built her reputation as part of a third-party movement that challenged the dominance of the Progressive Liberal Party and Free National Movement.

Like many third-party candidates, she struggled to turn public interest and frustrations into victory.

Now, running under the FNM banner in Carmichael, the equation changes dramatically.

As a major party candidate, Komolafe enters the race with something third parties often lack—party structure. Ground organization, campaign machinery, financing, and an established voter base all increase the chances of turning support into actual votes at the polls with better promises of a seat in the House of Assembly.

Energy around her candidacy in Carmicahel suggests she may now be benefiting from the very system that once worked against her.

That shift reveals an uncomfortable reality for third-party politics in the Bahamas.

While smaller parties can generate debates and even passionate supporters, breaking through is extremely difficult in a system dominated by two major parties—FNM and PLP.

Over time, many third-party figures face a choice to remain politically independent with limited pathways to power or join a major party where their influence can expand.

Komolafe appears to have made that calculation.

What makes her transition especially significant is that some former DNA supporters and members have reportedly moved with her into the FNM.

Instead of competing against the FNM for anti-establishment voters, she is now helping to funnel that energy directly into the party.

Incumbent Michael Darville is attempting to hold the seat for the Progressive Liberal Party against a renewed challenge from the Free National Movement.

Darville will face FNM candidate Serfent Rolle, while Trevor Greene enters the race under the Coalition of Independents banner.

In 2021, Darville secured the seat convincingly with 2,243 votes, defeating FNM candidate Donald Saunders, who received 1,107 votes. The COI candidate at the time earned 378 votes, highlighting the difficulty third-parties face in breaking through in the two-party political system.

But Tall Pines also has a history of shifting sides.

In 2012, the constituency was represented by Leslie Miller under the PLP. By 2017, the seat flipped to the FNM with the late Donald Saunders. Four years later, Darville reclaimed it for the PLP which shows that the area is not a safe seat for either major party, but responds to the national mood and turnout at the polls.

That reality could make 2026 more competitive than the 2021 election.

As an incumbent, Darville benefits from familiarity and the advantages associated with the governing party. However, incumbents also carry the burden of defending the government’s overall record at a time when healthcare and voter frustration are the national discourse.

For Rolle, the challenge will be turning dissatisfaction with Darville into votes and rebuilding the FNM’s footing in the constituency.

Meanwhile, Greene faces the obstacles typical of third-party candidates like limited machinery and a system dominated by the two major parties.

There is a point in Bahamian politics where experience begins to look less like strength and more like an overstay.

Prime Minister Philip Davis, Glenys Hanna-Martin, and Fred Mitchell are not only candidates in the 2026 Election, but the old guard within Bahamian politics.

With decades in frontline roles, they bring continuity, deep constituency ties, and experience that newer candidates simply cannot replicate overnight.

But that longevity in politics is ricky.

The longer political figures like Davis, Hanna-Martin and Mitchell remain in front-line politics, the more they become associated with the status quo. For voters looking for change, that distinction is important. Voters know they can lead but many question, “Why haven’t things changed in the Bahamas?”

In politics where MPs have served for 20 or even 30 years, familiarity can breed fatigue.

Longstanding relationships with voters can secure loyalty and wins at the polls, but they can also create barriers for newer faces and voices trying to emerge.

Over time, seats can begin to feel more like political strongholds.

But Bahamian politics may be shifting. Voters are becoming more fluid, less rigidly tied to party lines, and increasingly influenced by the national mood of the country rather than loyalty.

This does not mean that veteran politicians are automatically unseated, but it does narrow the margin to become comfortable and complacent.

Change happens the moment voters begin to see longevity in politics not as leadership, but as a limitation to the country’s advancement.

It remains to be seen whether Davis, Hanna-Martin and Mitchell can still convince voters that their experience is driving the future and not holding it back.

For the first time in Bahamian politics, Bimini and the Berry Islands will vote as a single constituency, and it could become a competitive battleground in the May 12 election.

Formed following the January 2026 Constituencies Commission report, the new seat redraws familiar political lines. The Berry Islands have been separated from North Andros, while Bimini is no longer tied to West Grand Bahama.

It is now a constituency with no voting history.

Three candidates are now testing that ground: Carlton Bowleg for the Free National Movement, Randy Rolle for the Progressive Liberal Party and Hyram Rolle for the Coalition of Independents.

Bowleg has the strongest footing. He previously won the North Andros and Berry Islands seat in 2017 before losing it in 2021, giving him both name recognition and campaign experience in parts of the new constituency.

Randy Rolle, a former senator, is less tested at the polls, but backed by the governing party’s machinery. His challenge will be connecting across the two islands.

Hyram Rolle, running under the Coalition of Independents banner, faces the hurdles typical of third-party candidates with limited organization, and a system that historically favors the two major parties. His path to victory is narrow.

Retired prison officer Preston McKenzie was remembered for his presence.

“Only one of him,” Monique Greenslade shared. “A man who told you how he felt… and what he thought.”

Echoed across social media, tributes paint the picture of a man who spoke plainly and left an impression wherever he went.

Described by those who knew him as “one of a kind”, he died in a tragic accident in Exuma after his vehicle was found overturned in waters near the shoreline.

The shock of his passing touched colleagues, friends, and the wider community of Barraterre.

Within the correctional system, his legacy runs deep. The Correctional Officers Staff Association described him as “a true gem,” highlighting his role in shaping the next generation of officers. As a Corrections Sergeant, McKenzie trained countless recruits, instilling discipline, professionalism, and a standard of excellence that colleagues say will live on long after him.

But beyond the duty, his personality resonated with many.

“Never a dull moment,” Trina Cooper remembered. “He spoke clear and precise. He didn’t fumble with his words.”

Thelescia Archer described him simply as “the best gym instructor,” a reflection of the life and motivation he brought to those around him.

Kashan Durham shared that she had just seen McKenzie the week before. “I never thought last week in Exuma would have been the last time I saw you.”

His sister, Earnest Bain, expressed gratitude for the outpouring of support. “The road ahead will be hard,” she said, “but it gives us some comfort from each of you.”

The Barraterre Development Association also extended condolences, reminding the family they are not alone in their grief.