North Abaco: A three-way fight that could split the vote
The race in North Abaco is shaping up to be a competitive three-way contest, with Progressive Liberal Party incumbent Kirk Cornish facing Free National Movement challenger Terrece Bootle and Coalition of Independents candidate Cay Mills.
In 2021, Cornish secured the seat with approximately 1,344 votes, defeating the FNM’s 1,085 votes, while Mills, running outside the two major parties, captured 719 votes.
Historically, Abaco has been considered an FNM stronghold, shaped for decades by the influence of former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham, who represented the area from 1992 to 2012. While the PLP briefly held the seat following a 2012 by-election, it returned to the FNM in 2017 before Cornish flipped it again in 2021.
This suggests that North Abaco is no longer predictable.
The introduction of Bootle, a new FNM candidate and former island administrator, adds a new dynamic to the race. Her ties to Abaco and administrative experience could help solidify traditional FNM support. At the same time, Cornish has an incumbent advantage and has broken the FNM’s hold on the seat prior.
Mills, however, may once again prove to be a decisive factor. His 2021 performance showed a measurable base of support outside the FNM and PLP parties. In an environment where frustration with the traditional two-party system appears to be growing, support for Mills could grow or influence the outcome.
