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Central and South Abaco could be one of the more unpredictable races of the May 12 election because there is no incumbent.

Former Progressive Liberal Party MP John Pinder, who won the constituency in 2021, is not returning to defend the seat. Instead, the PLP has placed its hopes in candidate Bradley Fox, who will face Jeremy Sweeting of the Free National Movement and Coalition of Independents candidate Crystal Williams.

In 2021, Pinder secured the seat with 766 votes, narrowly defeating the FNM’s candidate, who received 693 votes. The Coalition of Independents candidate got 258 votes.

The close margin in 2021 can suggest this constituency is competitive.

Historically, the constituency has leaned toward the FNM. From 2007 to 2012, and again in 2017, the seat was represented by FNM MPs, including Edison Key and later James Albury. That may give the FNM confidence that the seat is recoverable, particularly in an election where the national mood and turnout could heavily influence swing constituencies.

For the PLP, the challenge will be proving that support for the party in 2021 was not tied solely to Pinder personally, but can be transferred to Fox.

Meanwhile, the Coalition of Independents faces the same challenge that confronts most third-party movements in Bahamian politics, turning frustration into actual victory. Winning seats outright remains difficult in a political system still dominated by the PLP and FNM.

Incumbent Michael Darville is attempting to hold the seat for the Progressive Liberal Party against a renewed challenge from the Free National Movement.

Darville will face FNM candidate Serfent Rolle, while Trevor Greene enters the race under the Coalition of Independents banner.

In 2021, Darville secured the seat convincingly with 2,243 votes, defeating FNM candidate Donald Saunders, who received 1,107 votes. The COI candidate at the time earned 378 votes, highlighting the difficulty third-parties face in breaking through in the two-party political system.

But Tall Pines also has a history of shifting sides.

In 2012, the constituency was represented by Leslie Miller under the PLP. By 2017, the seat flipped to the FNM with the late Donald Saunders. Four years later, Darville reclaimed it for the PLP which shows that the area is not a safe seat for either major party, but responds to the national mood and turnout at the polls.

That reality could make 2026 more competitive than the 2021 election.

As an incumbent, Darville benefits from familiarity and the advantages associated with the governing party. However, incumbents also carry the burden of defending the government’s overall record at a time when healthcare and voter frustration are the national discourse.

For Rolle, the challenge will be turning dissatisfaction with Darville into votes and rebuilding the FNM’s footing in the constituency.

Meanwhile, Greene faces the obstacles typical of third-party candidates like limited machinery and a system dominated by the two major parties.

There is a point in Bahamian politics where experience begins to look less like strength and more like an overstay.

Prime Minister Philip Davis, Glenys Hanna-Martin, and Fred Mitchell are not only candidates in the 2026 Election, but the old guard within Bahamian politics.

With decades in frontline roles, they bring continuity, deep constituency ties, and experience that newer candidates simply cannot replicate overnight.

But that longevity in politics is ricky.

The longer political figures like Davis, Hanna-Martin and Mitchell remain in front-line politics, the more they become associated with the status quo. For voters looking for change, that distinction is important. Voters know they can lead but many question, “Why haven’t things changed in the Bahamas?”

In politics where MPs have served for 20 or even 30 years, familiarity can breed fatigue.

Longstanding relationships with voters can secure loyalty and wins at the polls, but they can also create barriers for newer faces and voices trying to emerge.

Over time, seats can begin to feel more like political strongholds.

But Bahamian politics may be shifting. Voters are becoming more fluid, less rigidly tied to party lines, and increasingly influenced by the national mood of the country rather than loyalty.

This does not mean that veteran politicians are automatically unseated, but it does narrow the margin to become comfortable and complacent.

Change happens the moment voters begin to see longevity in politics not as leadership, but as a limitation to the country’s advancement.

It remains to be seen whether Davis, Hanna-Martin and Mitchell can still convince voters that their experience is driving the future and not holding it back.

With just days before voters head to the polls, questions about fairness, trust, and transparency are shaping the conversation of the 2026 general election.

At the center of the debate is Prime Minister Philip Davis and his administration, facing mounting criticism from the opposition Free National Movement over whether the electoral process is truly even.

FNM leader Michael Pintard and party chairman Dr Duane Sands have both raised concerns in recent days, pointing to what they describe as troubling developments and “political corruption” within the electoral system. Among them: issues at the Parliamentary Registration Department, questions around voter registration processes, voter card disputes, preferential treatment for the governing party, names not on the advance poll register though eligible, and broader concerns about administrative transparency.

The FNM sees it as “a coordinated effort” to disadvantage their party. “It is a direct threat to a free and fair election, which is fundamental to our democracy,” Sands said.

One of the more striking developments has been the FNM’s call for international observers, including from the United States, to monitor the election. That request shows a level of unease that goes beyond routine political rhetoric and into questions about electoral confidence.

The governing Progressive Liberal Party has not conceded any wrongdoing and continues to project confidence in the integrity of the process.

On one hand, the Bahamas has established an electoral system designed to ensure fairness, including oversight by the Parliamentary Commissioner Harrison Thompson and structured voting procedures.

On the other hand, when opposition parties raise alarms—whether about voter lists, administrative delays, or institutional conduct, it can erode public confidence, regardless of whether those concerns are substantiated.

Elections are judged by how they are conducted and whether voters believe they were conducted fairly.

Can the system be trusted?

As the country heads to a general election on May 12, a cluster of constituencies, some described as “over-the-hill”, is burdened by persistent socio-economic challenges.

In these areas, the Progressive Liberal Party has traditionally enjoyed strong support. Incumbents such as Wade Watson (Bain and Grants Town), Jomo Campbell (Centerville), Glenys Hanna-Martin (Englerston), Wayne Munroe (Free Town) and Kingsley Smith (West End) are again seeking the confidence of voters.

Michael Halkitis (St Barnabas) ran in 2021 but lost and is on the ballot again this election cycle.

The PLP candidates will face Free National Movement candidates Jay Philippe, Darvin Russell, Heather McDonald, Lincoln Deal, Omar Isaacs and Jamal Moss.

These constituencies are often characterised by visible challenges like ageing infrastructure, inconsistent garbage collection, substandard housing conditions, and long-standing issues linked to poverty and unemployment.

In Englerston, for example, Hanna-Martin’s tenure spans nearly 30 years, making her one of the longest-serving MPs in the country. Others, like Watson and Campbell, are first-term incumbents, while Smith entered Parliament through a by-election in 2023. Veteran Halkitis, meanwhile, seeks to become the representative in a seat previously held by FNM Shanendon Cartwright.

But these communities have had long connections to the PLP.

Supporters of the PLP often point to its historical connection to Sir Lynden Pindling in advancing the interests of working-class Bahamians, particularly in communities that have felt marginalized in years past.

That history continues to shape how they vote today.

Many, however, argue that loyalty to the PLP has not consistently translated into visible transformation in their constituencies. The concern is whether that support is being matched by measurable progress.

Overflowing drains, sanitation issues, and limited job prospects are their daily realities. Their MPs may point to programs, contracts, and incremental upgrades, while some constituents measure progress by what they see and feel.

When the two realities do not align, frustration grows, and “slow change” begins to feel like no change at all. Votes may then shift to an FNM candidate.

As voters prepare to return to the polls, it remains to be seen who wins these seats and what the victories mean.

As the Bahamas heads toward the May 12 general election, a narrative is emerging around a group of incumbents on the Progressive Liberal Party ticket, the “one-and-done” MPs.

The phrase reflects a perception among some voters that certain first-term parliamentarians may struggle to secure re-election because of questions around their performance, visibility, and delivery in their constituencies.

In 2021, the election was shaped heavily by public dissatisfaction with the Free National Movement administration led by Hubert Minnis, particularly over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The result was a decisive outcome for the PLP who secured 32 seats in a sweeping victory.

In sweeping elections, voters are more motivated by a desire to remove the incumbent government. This creates an environment where newer, lesser-known or once conflicted candidates can ride the tide into office.

Once elected, those MPs are judged individually. Constituents begin to assess their accessibility and the tangible improvements in their constituencies.

When the expectations are not met, they are characterised as “one-and-done”.

It suggests that some MPs may have been voted in by circumstance rather than full support.

There is also another pattern in Bahamian politics that reinforces this. Since 1992, elections have frequently alternated between the FNM and PLP, a tendency among voters to “vote out” governments rather than consistently “vote in” them.

If that pattern holds, incumbents who have not solidified their base may be vulnerable.

The question for May 12 is which PLP first-term MPs have done enough to escape the fate of being remembered as “one-and-done.”

The Free National Movement fielded candidates in some of the country’s most entrenched Progressive Liberal Party constituencies, seats defined by loyalty and deep political roots.

Among them: Heather McDonald in Englerston against Glenys Hanna-Martin; Mike Holmes in Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador, a seat held by Prime Minister Philip Davis; Julien Gibson in Central, Mangrove Cay and South Andros against Leon Lundy; Debra Moxey-Rolle in Exuma and Ragged Island against Deputy Leader Chester Cooper; Omar Isaacs challenging Kingsley Smith; and Darvin Russell in Centreville against Jomo Campbell.

These are among the most difficult races for the FNM to win. Many of these constituencies are historically and culturally aligned with the PLP. Generational voting patterns and the visibility of long-serving representatives created an advantage for the PLP over the years.

Running candidates in PLP strongholds allows the FNM to build recognition. Even incremental gains can signal shifting sentiment among voters.

By competing across the map, the FNM party projects confidence, reinforcing the idea that no seat is beyond contest.

But the path to victory is narrow. FNM candidates must rely on voter dissatisfaction, the national mood of the country and turnout shifts.

As the election nears, the Progressive Liberal Party is taking a risk by placing its new candidates in the most difficult constituencies that have historically voted for the Free National Movement.

Candidates such as Keno Wong (St Anne’s), Reneika Knowles (Long Island), Parkco Deal (Central Grand Bahama), Robyn Lynes (Killarney), Eddie Whann (Marco City), and Monique Pratt (East Grand Bahama) are entering frontline politics in seats where the odds are not traditionally in their favor.

These constituencies have long been held by the FNM. St Anne’s is currently held by Adrian White, while Long Island, represented by Adrian Gibson since 2017, will now see Andre Rollins carry the FNM banner.

In Central Grand Bahama, Frazette Gibson steps in following Iram Lewis’s shift to a third-party run. Killarney, once held by former Prime Minister Hubert Minnis, remains a stronghold but with slight boundary changes, now represented by Michaela Ellis, while Marco City is represented by FNM leader Michael Pintard. East Grand Bahama continues under Kwasi Thompson.

Even in 2021, when the FNM lost, these seats held firm, highlighting the constituencies’ loyalty to the FNM that often defines Bahamian voting patterns.

So why place new, relatively untested candidates in such high-stakes races?

Observers say these races give the PLP an opportunity to test their candidates and chip away at entrenched margins. If results show even modest gains, it can signal shifting voting sentiments for future elections.

It remains to be seen whether they can narrow the gap or even produce an upset.

At a time when many Bahamians are navigating a tight job market, a minimum wage of $260 a week, and a lack of opportunities for young Bahamians returning from university,  a different reality exists at the upper levels of the public service.

Melvin Seymour, a retiree was brought back into government as a permanent secretary earning more than $221,000 annually according to the Tribune. Who truly benefits from public sector opportunities?

Senior roles like his demand experience and institutional knowledge. Rehiring seasoned professionals can provide continuity, particularly in critical ministries. In this framing, bringing back a retiree is more about capacity.

But for many Bahamians, particularly younger workers and those struggling to secure stable employment, it’s harder to reconcile. A system that recalls retirees into top-paying roles while others search for entry level jobs can feel like exclusion.

It raises questions about access for an average Bahamian: Are opportunities being recycled at the top while scarce for Bahamians at the bottom?

The issue reflects a broader tension within governance, valuing experience and expanding opportunities.

If retirees are consistently re-engaged in senior roles, what pathways exist for the next generation of public servants to rise?

It is a pattern that reinforces inequality where the most lucrative opportunities circulate among a familiar few.

In an election season, it taps into a deeper concern: whether the structures of opportunity in the country are broadening or simply being maintained for the few.

One question lingers, ‘Who gets the chance, and who keeps getting it?’