No Gibson, new test: Is Long Island still FNM stronghold?

Long Island has traditionally been the reliable territory for the Free National Movement. Election after election, the seat has remained in the party’s winning column, built on consistent support.

With former MP Adrian Gibson no longer on the ballot, the FNM is now represented by Andre Rollins, facing off against Reneika Knowles of the Progressive Liberal Party and Shura Pratt of the Coalition of Independents.

Past results show just how firmly the FNM held the seat. In 2017, Gibson secured victory with 883 votes, comfortably ahead of the PLP’s 576, while an independent candidate received 252 votes.

In 2021, the margin narrowed slightly but remained decisive, with Gibson earning 778 votes compared to the PLP’s 574. Third-party and independent candidates played only a minor role, combining for just 24 votes.

The absence of an incumbent Gibson could change the equation. Rollins, though once a parliamentarian, carries name recognition and constituency connection through family ties.

For the PLP, the path to victory remains steep. Past results show a consistent base of support that has not been enough to overcome the FNM advantage.

At the same time, frustration with traditional party politics has been growing, at least in theory, for alternative parties. That is where Pratt enters the conversation.

It remains to be seen if that frustration translates into actual votes in a constituency that has historically voted FNM.