election2026

For the first time in Bahamian politics, Bimini and the Berry Islands will vote as a single constituency, and it could become a competitive battleground in the May 12 election.

Formed following the January 2026 Constituencies Commission report, the new seat redraws familiar political lines. The Berry Islands have been separated from North Andros, while Bimini is no longer tied to West Grand Bahama.

It is now a constituency with no voting history.

Three candidates are now testing that ground: Carlton Bowleg for the Free National Movement, Randy Rolle for the Progressive Liberal Party and Hyram Rolle for the Coalition of Independents.

Bowleg has the strongest footing. He previously won the North Andros and Berry Islands seat in 2017 before losing it in 2021, giving him both name recognition and campaign experience in parts of the new constituency.

Randy Rolle, a former senator, is less tested at the polls, but backed by the governing party’s machinery. His challenge will be connecting across the two islands.

Hyram Rolle, running under the Coalition of Independents banner, faces the hurdles typical of third-party candidates with limited organization, and a system that historically favors the two major parties. His path to victory is narrow.

This election season places Minister of Health Michael Darville squarely under the spotlight, with Princess Margaret Hospital at the center of national debate.

Can Bahamians see whether his leadership has turned into results they can feel?

For many Bahamians, the experience is familiar: long waits, a feeling of neglect, fear of dying, stretched staff, and a system that appears to be operating beyond its limits.

Doctors and nurses are widely seen as doing their best under pressure.

The question voters are asking is about the system and the leadership responsible for it.

Darville has pointed to a long-term solution: a new specialised hospital for women and babies.

Before election with the cutting of the ground, it is meant to look like a forward-looking agenda, but that solution will not solve today’s problems.

Healthcare is a personal debate for voters. It is the difference between being seen quickly or waiting for hours, confidence in the system and uncertainty about what happens next, having or not having medication available and life or death.

There is also the question of priorities. Should the focus be on large-scale, future infrastructure while the existing PMH struggles? Or should immediate and visible improvements take precedence in an already strained environment?

Darville’s challenge is timing, delivery, and trust.

In another election, a long-term reform plan might be enough, but in this election year, Bahamian voters will measure his performance by what has already changed.

As the countdown to May 12 intensifies, it is becoming clear that the Progressive Liberal Party’s campaign strategies mirror the political playbook of Mia Mottley, Barbados’ prime minister, envied around the region.

Across the Bahamas, the PLP campaign banners are no longer just about the individual constituency candidate. Instead, they prominently feature Prime Minister Philip Davis positioned behind them, reinforcing a clear message that a vote for the PLP candidate is a vote for Davis.

This is a strategic move.

In Barbados, Mottley successfully transformed general elections into a referendum on her leadership, leveraging strong personal approval to secure consecutive victories, including a third term earlier this year.

Her slogan, “It’s safer with Mia,” emphasized stability, continuity, and trust. Now, the PLP’s “Safe with Davis” messaging echoes that same emotional appeal, signalling an attempt to replicate Mia’s branding.

But the Bahamas is not Barbados.

In the Bahamas’ political culture, governments are often voted out after a single term.

For Davis and the PLP, the upside is clear. If supporters feel economic uncertainty or social unease and trust Davis, then “safety” becomes a powerful motivator, so they head to the polls.

By nationalizing the election, the PLP is attempting to elevate Davis’ leadership over weaker constituency candidates, unifying its message under Davis.

However, there are risks. By turning the election into a referendum on Davis, he becomes the center of accountability. The country’s national concerns, like the cost of living, crime, economic performance, and immigration problems, become directly tied to Davis.

As the general election approaches, a surge of independent candidates is stepping outside party lines and into uncertain territory.

From former MPs to long-serving contenders, figures like Leroy Major (Southern Shores), Renward Wells (Bamboo Town), Kate Williamson (MICAL), Andrew Blue Johnson (FreeTown), Ali McIntosh (Englerston), Frederick McAlpine (Pineridge), Hubert Minnis (Killarney), and Ryan Forbes (North Abaco) are all betting that their personal brand can outweigh a party’s machinery.

But this is a high-risk move. Traditionally, voters favor the two dominant parties—the PLP and the FNM, with strong ground operations, voter databases, funding, and mobilization which gives their candidates an advantage.

Independents, by contrast, must build their machinery from scratch, and often quickly.

For some, the decision to run independently is born out of displacement. Major, an incumbent MP, was replaced as the PLP’s candidate. Minnis, a former prime minister, did not receive the nomination by the FNM.

Others, like Wells and Johnson, sought nominations but were unsuccessful. In these cases, independent runs are often about political survival.

But history says independent candidates rarely win.

Voters sometimes only admire the independent candidate, but on Election Day, when instinct kicks in, many often vote for party candidates.

Without party backing, even a victorious independent enters Parliament with limited power and no pathway to governance. For voters, that uncertainty can be a deterrent.

However, independents can still play a decisive role, even in defeat, by splitting the vote. This can change the results in key constituencies, potentially costing major parties critical seats.

Long Island has traditionally been the reliable territory for the Free National Movement. Election after election, the seat has remained in the party’s winning column, built on consistent support.

With former MP Adrian Gibson no longer on the ballot, the FNM is now represented by Andre Rollins, facing off against Reneika Knowles of the Progressive Liberal Party and Shura Pratt of the Coalition of Independents.

Past results show just how firmly the FNM held the seat. In 2017, Gibson secured victory with 883 votes, comfortably ahead of the PLP’s 576, while an independent candidate received 252 votes.

In 2021, the margin narrowed slightly but remained decisive, with Gibson earning 778 votes compared to the PLP’s 574. Third-party and independent candidates played only a minor role, combining for just 24 votes.

The absence of an incumbent Gibson could change the equation. Rollins, though once a parliamentarian, carries name recognition and constituency connection through family ties.

For the PLP, the path to victory remains steep. Past results show a consistent base of support that has not been enough to overcome the FNM advantage.

At the same time, frustration with traditional party politics has been growing, at least in theory, for alternative parties. That is where Pratt enters the conversation.

It remains to be seen if that frustration translates into actual votes in a constituency that has historically voted FNM.

With just weeks before the general election, allegations of voter card fraud have introduced a new layer of tension into the country’s political climate and into the broader issue of electoral trust, and Michael Pintard, leader of the Free National Movement, is now calling on Prime Minister Philip Davis to address the matter directly.

Pintard raised the issue during a rally in Grand Bahama on Saturday.

The particular case involves a Haitian woman who reportedly presented a voter’s card while attempting to obtain a National Insurance card.

Now, the police said both she and a worker from the Parliamentary Registration Department have been arrested, with charges of fraud by false pretences.

The situation escalated further when authorities reportedly found multiple voter cards during a search linked to the case.

This may not be an isolated incident. Reports are also circulating that other incidents have occurred.

Other reports suggest that multitudes of Haitian nationals are arriving at NIB seeking cards after being quickly processed as naturalised citizens.

In the House of Assembly last month, Pintard showed a list of 74 people, whom he claimed were being investigated for holding fraudulent passports. Chief Passport Officer Nicholas Symonette later confirmed that the 74 names are among the list of 98 that have been referred to the police.

The core issue is whether the system is protecting the integrity of the vote. When voter identification documents are allegedly misused or improperly obtained, it raises concerns about oversight, controls, and accountability within the electoral process.

The response from Parliamentary Commissioner Harrison Thompson, suggesting the individuals were seeking supporting identification rather than intending to vote, attempts to narrow the scope of the issue. However, it does not fully address the underlying concern about how such documents were accessed in the first place.

Elections rely heavily on confidence that the process is fair, secure, and credible. Any suggestion of vulnerability, especially so close to election day, can influence opinions and trust in the outcome.

As May 12 approaches, the issue may be whether the public believes the system is strong enough to prevent issues or is complicit.

The proposal by Michael Pintard and the  Free National Movement to introduce a national lottery is a potential shift in how gaming revenue is generated, controlled, and distributed in the Bahamas.

For years, the industry has been dominated by a small group of private operators.

That structure was created by a previous Progressive Liberal Party government under the Perry Christie administration, set by policy decisions, including limits on new licenses, which helped shape a controlled market with a handful of major players. Among the most prominent are Sebas Bastian, head of Island Luck and now a candidate for the Progressive Liberal Party; Craig Flowers owner of FML Webshop chains and Leander Brice owner and operator of A Sure Win.

The FNM’s proposal of a national lottery would place the government into that same space, not as a regulator, but as a participant, which changes the equation.

Pintard said the proceeds of the lottery would not go into the consolidated fund, but into a legal structure established specifically for that purpose that will ensure strong accountability mechanisms, governed by a private board.

Even if the national lottery is designed to coexist with private gaming, it introduces a new competitor with a different kind of advantage. A state-backed system can appeal to national sentiment, especially if it is tied to funding education, sports, youth development, social interventions and culture.

For some players, that connection between spending and public benefit could influence where they choose to spend their money.

For existing operators, the concern could be more about long-term effects. A national lottery raises questions about whether the current structure will remain as protected as it is. It also raises the possibility that revenue, which currently flows through private businesses, could be redirected through a public system with its own governance model.

For Bastian, the situation could become complex. As both a gambling industry leader and a PLP political candidate, the debate around a national lottery will invite more scrutiny, not only of the proposal itself, but of how closely politics and private gaming interests are connected.

For decades, Englerston has been firmly in the hands of the Progressive Liberal Party, with Glenys Hanna-Martin serving as its standard bearer since 2002. The constituency has long been considered one of the PLP’s safest seats, a political stronghold built on loyalty and consistent electoral wins.

But the 2026 race introduces a different dynamic.

Hanna-Martin now faces a new and fresh challenger, Heather McDonald of the Free National Movement, alongside Faith Percentie representing the Coalition of Independents and Ali McIntosh of the Bahamas Constitution Party. Neither opposition party has historically come close to unseating the PLP in Englerston.

In 2021, Hanna-Martin secured a commanding victory with 2,249 votes, while the FNM candidate trailed significantly with just under 500. Percentie, also in that race, received an estimated 160 votes, with a smaller share going to a Democratic National Alliance candidate.

On paper, the number of votes appears insurmountable, but elections are shaped by the mood of the country and the message. And this time, the broader political climate is shifting. Rising voter frustration, particularly around immigration, cost of living and governance, is becoming a defining feature of the national conversation.

For McDonald, the path may seem narrow, but not impossible. Englerston may still lean PLP, but in this election cycle, even safe seats could be tested.

As the Progressive Liberal Party seeks a second term, it is making big promises. From immigration reform to artificial intelligence, housing, and labour protections, the party’s “Blueprint for Progress” lays out an ambitious vision for 2026 if it wins the next government.

But for many voters, the real question is about the past.

In 2021, the PLP campaigned on a “Blueprint for Change” centered heavily on transparency and accountability. The promises were full implementation of the Freedom of Information Act, anti-corruption legislation, campaign finance reform, whistleblower protections, and stronger oversight through an Integrity Commission and Ombudsman.

Five years later, much of that agenda is incomplete.

While procurement and electoral reforms have been implemented—albeit with ongoing concerns about transparency—many of the cornerstone commitments have stalled. Campaign finance reform has not materialized. Key legislation, like the Ombudsman framework and Integrity Commission remains unrealised. Even measures that passed Parliament, such as whistleblower protections and an investigations commission, have not been fully brought into force.

The PLP administration has awarded hundreds of government contracts without competitive bidding.

High-value direct awards included road works, renovations to the national stadium, upgrades to the Family Courts complex, post office security, and Ministry of Finance software. Smaller no-bid contracts covered sidewalk installations, speed bump painting, consulting and public relations services, as well as expenses like Christmas decorations and Ministry of Works events.

However, the full picture of public procurement remains incomplete. Disclosures do not include contracts from key agencies such as the Ministry of Tourism or the Tourism Development Corporation, nor do they fully reflect state-owned enterprises, which are required to publish contracts over $25,000.

The most controversial case involved a $183 million contract awarded to an affiliate of Bahamas Striping Group, later “paused” by the government, citing an administrative error—raising continued concerns about transparency and oversight.

More tellingly, Prime Minister Philip Davis indicated in 2024 that fully funding transparency mechanisms like FOIA was not a priority.

When an incumbent government asks voters to trust a new set of promises, voters often look first at what was delivered and not just what is promised.

The PLP’s new platform is expansive. It addresses real concerns: tightening immigration systems, modernizing the economy through digital governance and AI, expanding worker protections, and tackling housing affordability. These are not minor commitments.

But the volume of promises does not always equal credibility.

The political risk for the PLP is overpromising while underdelivering. When previous commitments remain unfinished, new pledges can feel more like a reset, one that asks voters to move forward without fully accounting for what was left behind.

For undecided voters, especially, this creates a credibility issue. It becomes a question of whether voters believe new promises will be implemented. And that is where presentation alone is not enough.

Sleek launches, coordinated messaging, and detailed policy lists can shape perception, but elections are often decided on trust.

As the campaign unfolds, the PLP faces a challenge: convincing voters that the next five years will look different from the last.

Why should voters believe now what was not fully delivered then?

The Progressive Liberal Party’s “Blueprint for Progress” launch did not just mark a shift in tone, it felt strikingly familiar. In many ways, it mirrored the structure, discipline, and presentation of the Free National Movement’s campaign launch just weeks earlier.

And that may be the point.

The PLP’s latest event at the University of The Bahamas landed differently after a high-energy but lack of substance debut at Baha Mar. It was tighter, more controlled and more deliberate.

Ministers stood at the podium, reading from teleprompters, laying out policy across key areas like immigration, housing, labour, healthcare, and artificial intelligence. The visuals were polished, the messaging stayed on script, and the inclusion of younger faces on stage signaled an attempt to connect with a broader demographic.

This felt less like a rally and more like a correction.

At its campaign launch two weeks ago, the FNM focused not just on presentation, but on intention. Under Michael Pintard, the event was disciplined and message-driven. Pintard’s delivery was measured, and his messaging consistent—framing the party as ready to govern, not just ready to campaign.

If the PLP’s first launch was about energy, this one was about an attempt to define “progress”. The PLP appeared to recognise a gap and moved quickly to fill it, presenting a more structured vision of governance.

From proposals like a National Biometric Immigration System to expanded worker protections and a push into digital transformation, the party shifted into policy mode. Whether voters agree with the pledges is another question.

The PLP’s Blueprint Launch suggests a party recalibrating, moving from optics to substance, and in the process, adopting elements that made the FNM’s launch effective.