What we think could happen in 2026

As the Bahamas enters 2026, the country is moving into what is expected to be a political year. With a general election due, three political parties are preparing to contest seats in Parliament: the governing Progressive Liberal Party (PLP), the Free National Movement (FNM), and the Coalition of Independents (COI).

While the election date has not yet been announced, political activity will intensify as the year unfolds.

1. An intense political climate

One likely development is a more competitive political landscape. With three parties seeking votes, races may be tighter than in previous elections–a near-dangerous climate that involves threats, sharp language, misinformation, divisive rhetoric, and escalating conflicts.

This could place greater emphasis on:

• Candidates and their track records
• Constituency issues
• Voter engagement beyond traditional party loyalty

2. The prospect of a change in government

Another factor shaping 2026 is the possibility of a change in government.

While Prime Minister Philip Davis and the PLP remain in office, some political observers believe the party’s hold on power may be less secure than in previous years. This is largely driven by ongoing public concerns around the cost of living, crime, immigration issues, and whether economic progress is being felt across households, and mistrust.

There have also been segments of the electorate expressing frustration with traditional politics and an openness to alternatives, reflected in the emergence of the Coalition of Independents and renewed efforts by the FNM to reposition itself.

Bahamians have also created a pattern of alternating between the two major parties every five years.

Even shifts in voter turnout could increase the possibility of:

• Narrow wins or losses
• Reduced majorities in Parliament
• A more divided House of Assembly

3. Coalition of Independents as a wild card

The presence of the Coalition of Independents introduces an additional dynamic. Even without winning seats, the COI will influence debates, split votes, and reflect a wider desire for political reform.

Cost of living is likely to dominate the conversation.

Economic pressures are expected to remain front and center. Issues such as food prices, housing, utility costs, and employment continue to affect many Bahamian families.

As the incumbent, the PLP is likely to fight to defend its record, while the Opposition party will argue that relief has been uneven or slow.

4. Old faces push to the side within the Progressive Liberal Party

In an attempt to regain another term in office, the PLP could introduce lots of new candidates and push aside incumbents to show renewal and evolution. This could shape how voters perceive the party.

5. Youth and swing voters play a big role

With a growing number of young and first-time voters and undecided or swing voters on TikTok, 2026 could see the government place greater attention on:

• TikTok messaging and performance
• Education and skills training
• Employment opportunities
• Housing

The effectiveness with which political parties connect with these voters may influence the results.