politics

There is a point in Bahamian politics where experience begins to look less like strength and more like an overstay.

Prime Minister Philip Davis, Glenys Hanna-Martin, and Fred Mitchell are not only candidates in the 2026 Election, but the old guard within Bahamian politics.

With decades in frontline roles, they bring continuity, deep constituency ties, and experience that newer candidates simply cannot replicate overnight.

But that longevity in politics is ricky.

The longer political figures like Davis, Hanna-Martin and Mitchell remain in front-line politics, the more they become associated with the status quo. For voters looking for change, that distinction is important. Voters know they can lead but many question, “Why haven’t things changed in the Bahamas?”

In politics where MPs have served for 20 or even 30 years, familiarity can breed fatigue.

Longstanding relationships with voters can secure loyalty and wins at the polls, but they can also create barriers for newer faces and voices trying to emerge.

Over time, seats can begin to feel more like political strongholds.

But Bahamian politics may be shifting. Voters are becoming more fluid, less rigidly tied to party lines, and increasingly influenced by the national mood of the country rather than loyalty.

This does not mean that veteran politicians are automatically unseated, but it does narrow the margin to become comfortable and complacent.

Change happens the moment voters begin to see longevity in politics not as leadership, but as a limitation to the country’s advancement.

It remains to be seen whether Davis, Hanna-Martin and Mitchell can still convince voters that their experience is driving the future and not holding it back.

For the first time in Bahamian politics, Bimini and the Berry Islands will vote as a single constituency, and it could become a competitive battleground in the May 12 election.

Formed following the January 2026 Constituencies Commission report, the new seat redraws familiar political lines. The Berry Islands have been separated from North Andros, while Bimini is no longer tied to West Grand Bahama.

It is now a constituency with no voting history.

Three candidates are now testing that ground: Carlton Bowleg for the Free National Movement, Randy Rolle for the Progressive Liberal Party and Hyram Rolle for the Coalition of Independents.

Bowleg has the strongest footing. He previously won the North Andros and Berry Islands seat in 2017 before losing it in 2021, giving him both name recognition and campaign experience in parts of the new constituency.

Randy Rolle, a former senator, is less tested at the polls, but backed by the governing party’s machinery. His challenge will be connecting across the two islands.

Hyram Rolle, running under the Coalition of Independents banner, faces the hurdles typical of third-party candidates with limited organization, and a system that historically favors the two major parties. His path to victory is narrow.

As the general election approaches, a surge of independent candidates is stepping outside party lines and into uncertain territory.

From former MPs to long-serving contenders, figures like Leroy Major (Southern Shores), Renward Wells (Bamboo Town), Kate Williamson (MICAL), Andrew Blue Johnson (FreeTown), Ali McIntosh (Englerston), Frederick McAlpine (Pineridge), Hubert Minnis (Killarney), and Ryan Forbes (North Abaco) are all betting that their personal brand can outweigh a party’s machinery.

But this is a high-risk move. Traditionally, voters favor the two dominant parties—the PLP and the FNM, with strong ground operations, voter databases, funding, and mobilization which gives their candidates an advantage.

Independents, by contrast, must build their machinery from scratch, and often quickly.

For some, the decision to run independently is born out of displacement. Major, an incumbent MP, was replaced as the PLP’s candidate. Minnis, a former prime minister, did not receive the nomination by the FNM.

Others, like Wells and Johnson, sought nominations but were unsuccessful. In these cases, independent runs are often about political survival.

But history says independent candidates rarely win.

Voters sometimes only admire the independent candidate, but on Election Day, when instinct kicks in, many often vote for party candidates.

Without party backing, even a victorious independent enters Parliament with limited power and no pathway to governance. For voters, that uncertainty can be a deterrent.

However, independents can still play a decisive role, even in defeat, by splitting the vote. This can change the results in key constituencies, potentially costing major parties critical seats.

With the general election set for May 12, the political landscape will shift into a high-speed race.

From the issuance of writs on April 9, the Progressive Liberal Party, the Free National Movement and the Coalition of Independents and their candidates will have just over a month to make their case to voters.

Short campaigns often favour the incumbent party, but all parties have been preparing for the election call, intensifying their campaigns and ground teams since last year, and have already ratified a full slate of candidates.

The Progressive Liberal Party, led by Philip Davis, enters this sprint as the governing party with mostly incumbent candidates with the advantage of a record. Government decisions and policies have already been in front of voters. They have already introduced themselves and, in a campaign launch last month, before Lent, defended their performance and reinforcing the PLP’s narrative of ‘progress.’

Observers say the advantage comes with pressure. In a short campaign, there is less time to recover from missteps, to shift voters’ perception, and fewer opportunities to rebound if issues like the cost of living dominate public conversations.

For the Free National Movement, the shortened timeline presents a different challenge, which is speed. The party has already introduced its slate of candidates in a campaign launch last Saturday, with leader Michael Pintard making the case why his party is the better alternative to the government, pressing that the FNM is ready to govern. With a full slate of candidates now in place, the task becomes sharpening and reiterating the messaging and ensuring that candidates connect with voters to build momentum.

Third party, the Coalition of Independent has built a strong social media base, explaining their party’s plans, and attracting voters’ curiosity. In a 34-day sprint, a shorter campaign can also work in their favour if they continually tap into voter frustration with traditional parties.

Ultimately, this election will be about which party can deliver their message most effectively.

Marathon seems to be a seat that does not stay loyal to either party for long, and often reflects the national mood of the country.

That history makes the upcoming election especially significant.

Incumbent Lisa Rahming of the Progressive Liberal Party will defend the seat against Jacqueline Penn-Knowles of the Free National Movement and Tyrone Green of the Coalition of Independents.

In the 2021 general election, Rahming secured a decisive victory with 2,050 votes, defeating FNM candidate Romauld Ferreira, who received 884 votes. The Coalition of Independents candidate earned 264 votes, while other minor parties got 74 votes.

Marathon’s electoral history shows shifts every election season.

The constituency has changed hands multiple times over the past two decades. Earl Deveaux won the seat for the FNM in 2007. It shifted to the PLP in 2012 under Jerome Fitzgerald, before returning to the FNM in 2017 with Romauld Ferreira. By 2021, it swung again, this time back to the PLP with Rahming’s victory.

That pattern raises a key question heading into the next election: Is Marathon preparing to swing again?

For the FNM, the seat represents a realistic pickup opportunity if national momentum shifts in its favor. For the PLP, retaining Marathon would signal continued strength beyond a single election cycle.

The presence of the Coalition of Independents is another layer of uncertainty. While third parties have historically struggled to win seats, their ability to attract dissatisfied voters could influence margins in close races.

Much will depend on the ground campaigns, turnout, voter engagement and how effectively each party connects with constituents on issues like cost of living, jobs and community development.

For decades, St Anne’s has been regarded as one of the most reliable strongholds for the Free National Movement, a constituency widely considered a “safe seat” for the party.

But as the country moves closer to another general election, the race is drawing attention.

Incumbent MP Adrian White will once again carry the FNM banner, facing a challenge from Keno Wong of the Progressive Liberal Party and Graham Weatherford of the Coalition of Independents.

Historically, voters in St Anne’s have consistently supported the FNM. In 2007, veteran politician Brent Symonette secured the seat for the party. Five years later, in 2012, the constituency elected Hubert Chipman. Symonette returned in 2017 before stepping aside ahead of the 2021 general election, when White captured the seat.

In that race, White won decisively with 2,007 votes. Christopher Saunders, running for the PLP at the time, received 1,253 votes, while COI candidate Sheneise Miller secured 172. Candidates from the Democratic National Alliance and independents combined for just 82 votes.

For PLP Wong, the numbers reflect a long-standing political loyalty he hopes to shift. He has lived in the area for years, and says his deep ties to the community motivated him to enter frontline politics. Wong has argued that while the constituency has historically supported the FNM, residents may now be ready for new leadership.

White, however, remains confident. During his ratification, he pointed to his record in office and reaffirmed his commitment to advancing the FNM’s vision for the constituency, expressing confidence that voters will give him a second term.

Weatherford, new to frontline politics, the strength of his ground campaign remains unclear. But as frustration with the traditional two-party system grows, third-party candidates could siphon votes that might otherwise determine the results in close races.

As Election 2026 approaches, a question is surfacing again: Are members of the Free National Movement judged more harshly in controversy than their Progressive Liberal Party counterparts?

Among some voters, the perception is clear. When allegations or associations emerge, FNM figures often face swift calls for resignation or withdrawal. PLP leaders, critics argue, are more likely to defend, dismiss or outlast controversy.

The difference lies not just in the issue but in the response.

In 2023, when Immigration Minister Keith Bell faced criticism over decisions that some said bypassed senior immigration officials, the FNM called for his resignation. At the time, PLP Chairman Fred Mitchell publicly said he advised Bell not to respond to the controversy, suggesting it would not be beneficial.

The incident showed the PLP’s instinct to contain and stand firm rather than concede ground.

The pattern is being debated again.

After the arrest of Malcolm Goodman in the United States on drug charges, some PLP voices called on the FNM to reconsider Marvin Dames’ nomination for Mt Moriah, despite Dames not being accused of wrongdoing.

Dames acknowledged a past business arrangement with Goodman but denied any knowledge of alleged criminal activity.

At the same time, Sebas Bastian’s name appeared in recently released Jeffrey Epstein-related documents referencing trafficking allegations — allegations he has denied.

There has been no internal campaign within PLP ranks demanding political distance.

Prime Minister Philip Davis publicly stood by Bastian, insisting the claims would not affect the party’s election campaign.

Davis has also publicly stood by businessman Adrian Fox, who previously faced U.S. legal trouble connected to human smuggling allegations before entering a plea to a lesser vessel-related charge.

Davis told reporters Fox was both a client and a friend. He wrote to a U.S. judge urging a lenient sentence and later said that if given the opportunity, he would do it again.

To critics, this posture signals boldness, even defiance, in the face of controversy. To supporters, it reflects loyalty and a belief in second chances.

The broader question remains: Is accountability applied consistently, or through partisan lenses?

As the 2026 election campaign intensifies, two names, absent from the ballot, have begun circulating in the political conversation — Malcolm Goodman and Adrian Fox.

Neither is seeking office. Both, however, are business associates of candidates representing opposing parties.

Goodman’s story unfolded at sea.

U.S. authorities intercepted a 45-foot vessel near Florida and reported discovering roughly 200 kilograms of cocaine onboard. Goodman, identified as the vessel’s captain, was arrested and charged with possession with intent to distribute and importation of a controlled substance.

Before his arrest, Goodman was known as an experienced Bahamian A-Class captain and certified diver, offering chartered experiences on open water.

In 2024, he entered into a business arrangement with former National Security Minister and Mount Moriah candidate for the Free National Movement Marvin Dames. When news of the arrest broke, Dames publicly acknowledged the partnership but swiftly distanced himself, stating that neither he nor his wife had knowledge of or involvement in any alleged unlawful activity.

Goodman has taken responsibility.

Dames has not been accused of wrongdoing.

While Goodman’s case proceeds through the American court system, another name resurfaced in public discussion.

Adrian Fox, businessman and co-founder of Island Luck, had past U.S. legal matters and references in the recently released Jeffrey Epstein files. Fox is the business partner of Ambassador and Progressive Liberal Party candidate for Fort Charlotte, Sebas Bastian.

Both men were named in documents containing allegations of human and firearms trafficking — allegations they have denied.

Years earlier, Fox faced human trafficking charges in the United States connected to vessel operations in American waters. He ultimately entered a plea agreement tied to operating a vessel in a grossly negligent manner.

In 2021, Prime Minister Philip Davis confirmed he wrote to a U.S. judge on Fox’s behalf, describing him as his client and friend, and someone who had reordered his life and contributed positively to his community, urging a light, non-custodial sentence.

Character references were also submitted by Cabinet ministers Jomo Campbell and Alfred Sears, former ministers Shane Gibson and Leslie Miller, Sea Breeze MP Leslia Miller, and her husband Leander Brice, owner of the Asure Win web shop chain.

Davis said if he had to do it again, he would.

Neither Goodman nor Fox is campaigning, but as the election intensifies, their stories have become part of the season, where even association carries weight.

The race in St Barnabas has narrowed.

After Coalition of Independents hopeful Valentino McKenzie announced he is stepping aside, the contest, at least for now, appears to be between Michael Halkitis of the Progressive Liberal Party and Jamal Moss, the Free National Movement’s standard bearer.

McKenzie said it was an honour to walk the journey with the residents, but confirmed he would no longer be contesting the seat. It remains unclear whether the COI will ratify a replacement candidate.

St Barnabas is no stranger to tight races.

In 2021, Halkitis contested the constituency but lost to FNM candidate Shanendon Cartwright by just 111 votes — one of the narrowest margins in that election. Cartwright has since been ratified to contest St James, leaving St Barnabas without its incumbent MP.

For Halkitis, this is another chapter in a political career marked by both wins and losses. He won Golden Isles in 2012, lost it in 2017, and then fell short again in St Barnabas in 2021. Now, he remains in the constituency seeking redemption.

Moss, a former FNM senator, enters the race as a frontline candidate for the first time in this seat. While not new to politics, he is new to campaigning in St Barnabas as the party’s standard bearer.

The constituency itself faces persistent social and economic challenges.

With the third-party candidate out, for now, the dynamics could shift. If it remains a straight PLP-FNM contest, St Barnabas may once again come down to turnout and ground campaign.

And if 2021 is any guide, every vote will matter.