As the general election approaches, a surge of independent candidates is stepping outside party lines and into uncertain territory.
From former MPs to long-serving contenders, figures like Leroy Major (Southern Shores), Renward Wells (Bamboo Town), Kate Williamson (MICAL), Andrew Blue Johnson (FreeTown), Ali McIntosh (Englerston), Frederick McAlpine (Pineridge), Hubert Minnis (Killarney), and Ryan Forbes (North Abaco) are all betting that their personal brand can outweigh a party’s machinery.
But this is a high-risk move. Traditionally, voters favor the two dominant parties—the PLP and the FNM, with strong ground operations, voter databases, funding, and mobilization which gives their candidates an advantage.
Independents, by contrast, must build their machinery from scratch, and often quickly.
For some, the decision to run independently is born out of displacement. Major, an incumbent MP, was replaced as the PLP’s candidate. Minnis, a former prime minister, did not receive the nomination by the FNM.
Others, like Wells and Johnson, sought nominations but were unsuccessful. In these cases, independent runs are often about political survival.
But history says independent candidates rarely win.
Voters sometimes only admire the independent candidate, but on Election Day, when instinct kicks in, many often vote for party candidates.
Without party backing, even a victorious independent enters Parliament with limited power and no pathway to governance. For voters, that uncertainty can be a deterrent.
However, independents can still play a decisive role, even in defeat, by splitting the vote. This can change the results in key constituencies, potentially costing major parties critical seats.