If the Free National Movement (FNM) wins the Golden Isles by-election in November, it won’t change who governs, but it could change the political mood of the country heading into the next general election.
Here’s what that could mean:
1. The PLP stays in power, but the mood shifts
Even with an FNM victory, the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) would still command a strong majority in Parliament. But politically, perception matters.
A loss could shake confidence in the governing party and prompt swing voters to pay closer attention to the Opposition.
2. The Opposition gets a confidence boost
A win would signal that the FNM’s message is resonating again since its 2021 defeat.
It could energize supporters, attract new donors, and quiet critics who question the party’s readiness to return to government.
More importantly, it gives Pintard momentum and a narrative that the tide is turning in his favor. This would be his first by-election win, strengthening his credibility both within the party and with the wider public.
3. A warning shot for the Government
By-elections often serve as a report card for the sitting government.
If Golden Isles flips, it would suggest voter frustration with the cost of living, lack of opportunities, or a sense that progress is not being felt.
It would force the PLP to adjust its message, refocus its campaign strategy, and reconnect with disenchanted voters ahead of the 2026 election.
The bottom line
An FNM win wouldn’t change the balance of power, but it would change the political mood.
It would show that voters are restless and that the Opposition is gaining ground.
We can expect a more competitive, energized run-up to the next general election.
Executive members of the Democratic National Alliance scrambled on Monday to contain the fallout from reports that a physical altercation occurred at its latest internal meeting.
In a series of social media posts, the party members sought to quiet the tensions and praise Komolafe’s leadership as it seeks to defend the DNA’s run for the next General Election.
President of the DNA’s Women’s Alliance, Marsha Thompson said, “It is disappointing to see those persons going out there and trying to bring down our leader, a leader who would have embraced them, a leader who went beyond the call of duty in trying to encourage them… I know within my heart, that God has called this leader for such a time as this,” she said.
The party’s Vice Chairman Jeffery Deleveaux said conflict within political parties should be expected.
“…as with any party, you will have expressions of pain, hurt [and] resentment, but we also have love, understanding, and unity. The DNA party stands committed in unity behind the capable leadership of Mrs. Komolafe….
“…The party is still a young party. Growing pains [are] inevitable,” he said.
The party’s newly elected Deputy Leader Stephen Nesbitt who took the post after Buscheme Armbrister stepped down for ‘personal reasons’ stated, “ I would like to endorse Mrs. Arinthia Komolafe as the next prime minister of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas. She will make the Bahamian people proud. She will be the envy of the region, and ultimately, the envy of this world.
“I have seen under her leadership, the party grow from strength to strength.”
What happened
A former lawyer and advisor to the party Fayne Thompson and DNA’s candidate for Garden Hills Boyd Smith appeared on Beyond the Headlines hosted by Clint Watson on Friday evening, to tell their side of the story after the alleged physical assault was made public.
Both men stated that they were grieved with the party’s electoral process that saw the election of Nesbitt and Derek Smith as deputy leader and chairman, respectively.
Smith said, “There were major issues with the election process. It was not transparent and in violations of the resolutions passed in a meeting on July 1st. I wanted to bring that to the essential body and that was struck to be addressed.”
Thompson said he defended Smith’s position and was subsequently attacked by the party’s Communication Director Dietrich Carroll, “who literally, physically drove me into the wall because that was his means by which he displayed his displeasure taking issue in which the meeting was going on.”
Thompson said he then told Komolafe, “Control this body.”
Smith said he began recording the physical assault with his cell phone and was asked to stop by Komolafe’s husband, Emmanuel.
Mrs Komolafe then asked for his phone which he resisted. Smith said she took it out of his pocket and threw it to the ground, destroying the device.
“I tried to escape away from her in the corner where I was by the podium. Mrs Komolafe’s right hand, Armbrister charged toward me and pushed me into a chair. I got up and was protected by the security officer in the room.
“I really believe I was not going to survive if folks weren’t there to protect me,” Smith said.
Leader of the Progressive Liberal Party Philip Davis is tangling with advertisements on Facebook which he claims are disseminating false information about his party.
As election season heats up, Davis said in a press conference today that the Free National Movement is responsible for using social media advertisements to spread propaganda.
Why it matters
Political candidates suspect that Prime Minister Hubert Minnis will call an early election. In recent weeks, the political campaigns have intensified as both the FNM and the PLP have ratified candidates in preparation for when an election is called.
The big picture
Both political parties use social media to reach targeted audiences. In fact, it is believed that the platforms played a significant role in the 2017 General election where the political parties disseminated party rhetoric.
What Davis says
“Their strategy is to buy and lie their way through a campaign. Anyone with a phone or internet connection knows what I’m talking about.
“People are complaining to me about the toxic, deceptive ads every day that seem to be unavoidable.
“…The FNM is running a garbage juice campaign, filled with garbage juice lies,” Davis said.
Davis claims that his party has identified 11 fake Facebook groups running paid active anti-PLP campaigns from their pages.
“They are not real. They have no staff. They cannot be contacted. They do not produce, or post or advertise content except for anti-PLP and occasionally some pro-FNM content,” he claimed.”
He said these ads are “filled with disgusting lies,” which he says are about him and the newly ratified candidates.
Davis says his party will soon announce the measures it will take in regards to Facebook and its allowance to run “fake sites.”
Golden Isles Member of Parliament Vaughn Miller announced in the House of Assembly on Wednesday that he will become a member of the Progressive Liberal Party, having left the Free National Movement in 2019 to become an independent candidate.
Miller who is also a pastor of Resurrection Ministries International Church, said he sought consultation with God, his wife and church leaders before he made his decision to join the opposition party.
Pastor Vaughn Miller at Resurrection Ministries International. Photo credit: FB
Miller has offered to run 2022 in the Golden Isles constituency for the PLP, and will now be seated near the opposition in the HOA until the next general election.
Vaughn Miller’s history in Golden Isles
Vaughn Miller in 2017 as an FNM candidate. Photo credit: FB
Miller won the Golden Isles constituency in 2017 by 3,374 votes, beating PLP’s Michael Halkitis by 56 percent of the vote.
But when Miller left the FNM in 2019, he lost the support of the area’s association.
Miller was fired as a parliamentary secretary in 2018, after he voted against the increase of Value Added Tax.
Brown said the constituents were disappointed in Miller’s representation, after giving him their full support in the May 2017 election.
Brown has now become the FNM’s candidate for Golden Isles and has began campaigning for the 2022 general election.
Where Miller stands with the PLP? He once called the PLP corrupt
Miller’s career as a politician began in 2017, as his party campaigned against the “inprecedented corruption” of the PLP, as they exposed evidence of financial mismanagement, neligence and nepotism.
As Miller jumped ship to the PLP, a new question arises. What changed about the PLP? The PLP has not yet proven that they have changed and that they can lead the Bahamas . Why now?
Was the switch for political survival? Miller can now be expected to be used as a prop by the PLP.
Miller in his speech during the debate, never gave his reasoning for joining the opposition, only to say he talked with Opposition Leader Philip Davis and that he always desired “to help people.”
“It is time to do what is best for me,” Miller said.
Davis in a press statement, said, “I have been speaking to Miller for some time. I think his experience mirrors that of many Bahamians who wanted to believe the promises made by the Free National Movement in 2017, but who came to realize that his governemnt has neither the intention nor the capacity to keep those promises.”
Chester Cooper described Miller’s switch as a “jubilant day.”
“A glad day, a glorious day as we welcome Miller to the party,” whom he said he always admired.
What’s next for Vaughn Miller?
Miller’s chances of winning in the 2022 as an independent candidate was slim to none, as Bahamians rarely select independent representatives for their constituency.
His chances of winning as a PLP candidate is also slim.
Although Miller offered to run as a PLP candidate for Golden Isles, it is yet to be seen if he is the party’s strongest candidate for the area in 2022.
Will his constituency follow his path to the PLP or will it remain an FNM stronghold in the next general election?
Miller will face an uphill challenge from the FNM candidate for Golden Isles.
Featured Image: The Tribune
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