When Golden Isles MP and Cabinet Minister Vaughn Miller died suddenly, it left one seat in the House of Assembly empty. The question now is whether the government should call a by-election to fill the seat or skip it since a general election looms.
A Golden Isles by-election could be a fiscal waste and a political risk for the Progressive Liberal Party.
Why It Matters
Golden Isles Constituents are without a voice and a representative in the House of Assembly. Many may argue that voters deserve a member of parliament, even if for a short time. Not filling the seat could look dismissive to residents who already felt neglected by Miller before his death.
This by-election can be a financial waste, costing thousands of dollars in staffing, ballots, and logistics. In 2012, the North Abaco by-election reportedly cost about $25,000. In 2023, the West End and Bimini by-election reportedly cost about $10 million. And a New Providence by-election could cost even more.
Some may argue, why spend tens of thousands on a short-term parliamentarian when Bahamians will go back to the polls soon for the general election?
The by-election just months before a general election could be a political risk–a referendum on the government’s performance and popularity. If the PLP loses the seat or wins narrowly, it sends the wrong message heading into the polls. A loss, or even a close result, would bolster the Free National Movement (FNM).
The FNM, Coalition of Independents (COI) and the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), already gearing up for a general election, may not want another round of campaigning, and voters may feel election fatigue.
However, with a by-election, the PLP can show its strength by defending its 2021 win while testing its campaign machinery ahead of the general election.
The big picture
In 2021, PLP won Golden Isles by 627 votes. That’s comfortable but not untouchable. A swing of 300–400 voters could flip the seat.
By-elections often see lower turnouts, meaning a small shift in motivation to vote can make a big difference.
The FNM candidate for the constituency, Brian Brown, has already been nominated to run and has been canvassing the constituency for a few years, even after his loss to Vaughn Miller in 2021, meaning constituents know him and have tested his commitment to the area.
The PLP, without a candidate selected for the area, will lose ground. Miller was not popular with voters, with many vowing not to vote for him if he was nominated again by the party to contest the seat for a third term because of his lackadaisical approach as an MP.
The bottom line
Whether Prime Minister Philip Davis calls a by-election or waits, he will suffer the consequences. The PLP can risk an early loss if they call a by-election now, or save taxpayers money but leave Golden Isles voiceless if they wait until the general election.