generalelection

Three candidates are heading into a closely watched race in the Exumas and Ragged Island.

Chester Cooper, representing the Progressive Liberal Party, is seeking to hold the seat for a third time. His track record in the constituency is strong. In 2021, he secured a commanding 73 percent of the vote, a decisive margin that reinforced his position as the dominant figure in the area. Even in 2017, when the race was tighter, he still emerged victorious with 52 percent.

The Free National Movement is putting forward Debra Moxey-Rolle, a candidate with local roots and familiarity with the constituency. That connection could matter. In smaller communities like Exumas and Ragged Island, visibility and personal relationships often carry significant weight.

The question is whether that familiarity can translate into enough support to beat Cooper.

Byron Smith of the Coalition of Independents represents a different kind of challenge. As frustration with the two-party system grows among some voters, third-party candidates often benefit from protest support.

However, without a clearly visible ground campaign, it remains uncertain how much of that frustration can be converted into actual votes at the polls.

For Cooper, this election is about maintaining dominance and proving that his 2021 performance was not an outlier.

Moxey-Rolle must chip away at Cooper’s stronghold. And Smith will test whether the dissatisfaction can evolve into a disruption at the polls.

With the general election set for May 12, the political landscape will shift into a high-speed race.

From the issuance of writs on April 9, the Progressive Liberal Party, the Free National Movement and the Coalition of Independents and their candidates will have just over a month to make their case to voters.

Short campaigns often favour the incumbent party, but all parties have been preparing for the election call, intensifying their campaigns and ground teams since last year, and have already ratified a full slate of candidates.

The Progressive Liberal Party, led by Philip Davis, enters this sprint as the governing party with mostly incumbent candidates with the advantage of a record. Government decisions and policies have already been in front of voters. They have already introduced themselves and, in a campaign launch last month, before Lent, defended their performance and reinforcing the PLP’s narrative of ‘progress.’

Observers say the advantage comes with pressure. In a short campaign, there is less time to recover from missteps, to shift voters’ perception, and fewer opportunities to rebound if issues like the cost of living dominate public conversations.

For the Free National Movement, the shortened timeline presents a different challenge, which is speed. The party has already introduced its slate of candidates in a campaign launch last Saturday, with leader Michael Pintard making the case why his party is the better alternative to the government, pressing that the FNM is ready to govern. With a full slate of candidates now in place, the task becomes sharpening and reiterating the messaging and ensuring that candidates connect with voters to build momentum.

Third party, the Coalition of Independent has built a strong social media base, explaining their party’s plans, and attracting voters’ curiosity. In a 34-day sprint, a shorter campaign can also work in their favour if they continually tap into voter frustration with traditional parties.

Ultimately, this election will be about which party can deliver their message most effectively.

The day Parliament is dissolved will be significant, as the country moves closer to a general election.

When Prime Minister Philip Davis advises the Governor General to dissolve Parliament, it officially ends the current legislative term.

Here’s what actually happens:

The Commissioner of Police, acting as Provost Marshall will formally announce it from the steps of Parliament.

Davis would announce the election date, and all speculation would end.

The House of Assembly, where Members of Parliament meet to debate, discuss and vote on the laws, immediately stops sitting. And all official parliamentary business ends.

From that moment, MPs are no longer MPs but return to being private citizens. Even Cabinet ministers lose the letters “MP” after their names, because technically, no one holds that title anymore.

The prime minister and government ministers remain in office to ensure continuity. The administration shifts into what’s often called “caretaker mode,” meaning major new policy decisions are typically avoided unless necessary. Essential services continue, and the public service keeps functioning.

The business of governing, in its basic form, continues.

But the Parliamentary Registration closes, meaning that eligible voters are no longer able to register or transfer their address.

Parties move from governing to campaigning. Political parties mobilize and campaign offices activate and intensify. Candidates begin the final push across constituencies.

Dissolution marks the formal end of one Parliament and clears the path for voters to choose the next one.

For the governing Progressive Liberal Party, the opposition Free National Movement, and the third party Coalition of Independents, it is the start of the election race.

When a reporter attempted to nudge Free National Movement Leader Michael Pintard to give a response on whether or not Rick Fox was running on the FNM ticket since Fox announced his plans to run in the next general election, Pintard didn’t deny any assertions, but he leaned in.

“I think he has a tremendous amount that he can contribute to the Commonwealth of the Bahamas,” he said of Fox outside of Parliament on Wednesday.

“It’s regrettable that the deputy prime minister and the PLP would have taken potshots at him, referencing, again, his time competing for Canada. We have many Bahamians across the globe who are doing incredible things, and some have done some things under different banners, but they’ve remained loyal to The Bahamas, and we should reward that.”

“We are prepared to talk to Bahamians locally and abroad who wish to contribute to the empowerment of Bahamians.”

It seems Pintard is quietly signaling that the Free National Movement is courting Fox to become one of its candidates in the next general election.

Pintard praised Fox for his “tremendous amount” of contributions to the Bahamas.

If the FNM did not consider Fox, Pintard would have disassociated himself with Fox. But Pintard is signaling his party’s openness to a Fox partnership. Voters can now imagine Fox under the FNM banner

Pintard defended Fox strongly and sharply criticized the Deputy Prime Minister Chester Cooper and the PLP for taking “potshots” at Fox over competing for Canada.

Cooper said last week, he thought Fox, an ambassador-at-large and appointed by the PLP, was Canadian.

By defending Fox publicly, Pintard demonstrates that he values Fox and protects it. That is not something he would do if Fox were to head to the PLP or run as an independent. Neither would Cooper have said that.

Pintard then broadened the conversation to a bigger message: “We welcome Bahamians abroad.”

The line worth highlighting is: “We are prepared to talk to Bahamians locally and abroad who wish to contribute.”

It widens the scope from Rick Fox to the idea of recruiting voters from the diaspora, which suggests that Fox could be part of a strategy to bring high-profile Bahamians under the FNM banner.

Based on Fox’s criticism of the Progressive Liberal Party and Cooper’s off-putting statement about Fox, and Pintard’s defense of him, it could be concluded that Fox is very likely joining the FNM.

Since former NBA champion, actor and businessman, and ambassador Rick Fox, who has Bahamian roots, announced his intention to enter Bahamian politics ahead of the next general election, it instantly sparked debate.

Fox’s name recognition and influence can make him one of the most recognizable potential candidates on the political ticket. His pursuit of a candidacy has raised questions: Is he really Bahamian? And will his fame transfer into a successful politician?

Bahamian elections favor candidates with deep Bahamian ties, presence, and strong party backing, and some with a clear record of constituency work. And voters often prioritize whom they are familiar and party loyalty.

On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Chester Cooper questioned whether or not Fox was Bahamian or Canadian. “If Rick is a Bahamian, he is free to run for politics. I don’t know what his nationality is. I always thought he was Canadian, but if he is Bahamian, he can certainly offer himself for politics in the Bahamas.”

Around the world, celebrity candidates have entered politics and have been successful. Individuals like George Weah of Liberia, Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and Arnold Schwarzenegger of California have successfully translated fame into political power.

Fox enters the political arena with several advantages: His name is easily recognized, he may have a strong appeal to younger voters, and his messages to social media focus on transparency, opportunities, and economic development, an appeal to Bahamians desiring better.

These factors could allow him to quickly gain attention and build momentum.

Fox, like some candidates, doesn’t have experience in governance and will need to choose between joining a structured political party or running independently.

It remains to be seen which constituency Fox runs in, which party he chooses to align himself with, and how he balances celebrity status with political endeavors.

Fox’s potential candidacy highlights perhaps a shift in modern Bahamian politics, an arena common for traditional politics.

The Golden Isles by-election is not just a single constituency race. It is a report card for the governing party, the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP).

But what would it actually mean if the PLP loses this one seat?

Let’s break it down:

1. It wouldn’t change the Government

Even if the PLP loses Golden Isles, they will still control the House of Assembly because they have a strong majority. They still have enough members of parliament to pass laws, budgets, and continue governing.

The Free National Movement or Coalition of Independents winning the seat will not shift power.

2. It will send a political message

By-elections can be mini-referendums on the governing party. A loss for the PLP could be a sign that the populace is frustrated over:

• rising cost of living
• the pace of government

Even if voters still support the PLP nationally, losing Golden Isles would send a warning that public confidence is dwindling.

3. It energizes the Opposition

For the FNM, a win here would be more than just taking a seat, it would restore morale after a tough general election loss in 2021.

It would validate the leadership of Michael Pintard. And it would attract donors, and momentum going into the general election.

The Coalition of Independents would also claim legitimacy if they perform strongly, even without winning.

4. It changes the PLP conversation

People say politics is about perception.

A PLP loss would shift their narrative from “steady leadership” to “cracks in leadership.”

That could influence how the government communicates with the public and how it responds to public pressure on key issues.

The big picture

Golden Isles may be one seat but it will show whether Bahamians will give the PLP credit for progress, or whether frustrations over daily struggles have taken a toll.

The bottom line

A PLP loss will not topple the government but it could reshape the conversation heading into 2026 general election.

For the government, it is a wake-up call to reconnect with the public. And for the opposition, it’s a chance to prove they can still win the hearts of voters.

Fort Charlotte MP Alfred Sears, a veteran politician and Cabinet minister, has publicly endorsed businessman and Ambassador Sebas Bastian as his favored successor in the next general election.

His name has long floated around the Progressive Liberal Party’s circles.

Though the PLP has not yet nominated Bastian, the endorsement has sparked discussion about which direction the party appears to be heading and the blurred line between the acquisition of wealth, media influence, and political power in the Bahamas.

Who is Sebas Bastian?

Bastian is the owner of Island Luck, one of the country’s largest gaming businesses, and is also the owner of Eyewitness News.

He also serves as a Non-resident Ambassador to South America and has built a reputation as a technology-minded entrepreneur.

If he officially enters frontline politics, he would bring significant resources, media reach, and youth appeal. However, it would raise questions about the crossing of the controversial gaming industry and power.

What this could mean for the PLP

Inside the party, his nomination could energize young people and attract the youth and other like-minded technology-based entrepreneurs.

But it will also draw criticism from the religious sector of society, which is wary of the gambling ties with politics.

What happens next

Bastian would still need to be formally nominated by the PLP’s Candidates Committee, and it is not known when the party will announce its list of candidates for the upcoming general election.

The Free National Movement has already nominated Travis Robinson as its official candidate for the area and has been working in the community for some time.

Sears served consecutively for two terms in Fort Charlotte. The Free National Movement’s Mark Humes won the seat in 2017 before Sears came back to win it for the PLP, serving a third term.

Featured pictures: ZNS and Facebook

When Golden Isles MP and Cabinet Minister Vaughn Miller died suddenly, it left one seat in the House of Assembly empty. The question now is whether the government should call a by-election to fill the seat or skip it since a general election looms.

A Golden Isles by-election could be a fiscal waste and a political risk for the Progressive Liberal Party.

Why It Matters

Golden Isles Constituents are without a voice and a representative in the House of Assembly. Many may argue that voters deserve a member of parliament, even if for a short time. Not filling the seat could look dismissive to residents who already felt neglected by Miller before his death.

This by-election can be a financial waste, costing thousands of dollars in staffing, ballots, and logistics. In 2012, the North Abaco by-election reportedly cost about $25,000. In 2023, the West End and Bimini by-election reportedly cost about $10 million. And a New Providence by-election could cost even more.

Some may argue, why spend tens of thousands on a short-term parliamentarian when Bahamians will go back to the polls soon for the general election?

The by-election just months before a general election could be a political risk–a referendum on the government’s performance and popularity. If the PLP loses the seat or wins narrowly, it sends the wrong message heading into the polls. A loss, or even a close result, would bolster the Free National Movement (FNM).

The FNM, Coalition of Independents (COI) and the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), already gearing up for a general election, may not want another round of campaigning, and voters may feel election fatigue.

However, with a by-election, the PLP can show its strength by defending its 2021 win while testing its campaign machinery ahead of the general election.

The big picture

In 2021, PLP won Golden Isles by 627 votes. That’s comfortable but not untouchable. A swing of 300–400 voters could flip the seat.

By-elections often see lower turnouts, meaning a small shift in motivation to vote can make a big difference.

The FNM candidate for the constituency, Brian Brown, has already been nominated to run and has been canvassing the constituency for a few years, even after his loss to Vaughn Miller in 2021, meaning constituents know him and have tested his commitment to the area.

The PLP, without a candidate selected for the area, will lose ground. Miller was not popular with voters, with many vowing not to vote for him if he was nominated again by the party to contest the seat for a third term because of his lackadaisical approach as an MP.

The bottom line

Whether Prime Minister Philip Davis calls a by-election or waits, he will suffer the consequences. The PLP can risk an early loss if they call a by-election now, or save taxpayers money but leave Golden Isles voiceless if they wait until the general election.