As the Bahamas heads toward the May 12 general election, a narrative is emerging around a group of incumbents on the Progressive Liberal Party ticket, the “one-and-done” MPs.
The phrase reflects a perception among some voters that certain first-term parliamentarians may struggle to secure re-election because of questions around their performance, visibility, and delivery in their constituencies.
In 2021, the election was shaped heavily by public dissatisfaction with the Free National Movement administration led by Hubert Minnis, particularly over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The result was a decisive outcome for the PLP who secured 32 seats in a sweeping victory.
In sweeping elections, voters are more motivated by a desire to remove the incumbent government. This creates an environment where newer, lesser-known or once conflicted candidates can ride the tide into office.
Once elected, those MPs are judged individually. Constituents begin to assess their accessibility and the tangible improvements in their constituencies.
When the expectations are not met, they are characterised as “one-and-done”.
It suggests that some MPs may have been voted in by circumstance rather than full support.
There is also another pattern in Bahamian politics that reinforces this. Since 1992, elections have frequently alternated between the FNM and PLP, a tendency among voters to “vote out” governments rather than consistently “vote in” them.
If that pattern holds, incumbents who have not solidified their base may be vulnerable.
The question for May 12 is which PLP first-term MPs have done enough to escape the fate of being remembered as “one-and-done.”