lincolnbain

In the 2021 election, the Coalition of Independents made a headline-grabbing promise–$100,000 for every Bahamian. It was bold and grandiose, and for many, hard to reconcile with the economic reality of the country.

The elaborate figure floated publicly by its leader, Lincoln Bain, was staggering, estimated to be $40 billion in total for the country.

Heading into the 2026 election, Bain is offering something different, but also ambitious—Crown land for every eligible Bahamian, with legislation promised within the first 100 days in office.

So the question is how it connects to what was promised before.

For some Bahamians, it raises questions about Bain’s credibility and if it is feasible, while others, particularly COI supporters, see this as an evolution.

Where would the land come from, how would it be distributed, what qualifies someone as eligible, and how quickly could something of this scale realistically be delivered to Bahamians? are many questions being asked.

Voters are now asking what happened to the $100,000 promise and whether it still stands.

Big promises are not new in politics, and particularly around election time. They often speak to real frustrations about the cost of living, access to opportunities, and a desire for change. And for a third party, bold promises like these can be a way to break through a political system long dominated by two major parties.

As the election approaches, the COI faces a familiar challenge of turning these big ideas into believable plans.

In the span of two weeks, two candidates from the Coalition of Independents have stepped aside.

Central and South Eleuthera candidate Christian Heastie withdrew, with the party stating that his decision was based on personal reasons. Just last week, Valentino McKenzie for St Barnabas also stepped aside, with the COI citing personal injury.

The party has ratified Karen Butler to replace McKenzie.

Individually, these developments may be explainable due to personal circumstances, health matters, and life events, which can understandably interrupt a political campaign.

Watch Christian Heastie at his COI debut

Politics, particularly during this season, demands time and resources.

But when two candidate withdrawals occur in succession, how it is perceived by the public matters.

For a third-party positioning itself as a serious alternative to the established political parties, stability and confidence are critical signs for voters.

Candidate departures, even for legitimate reasons, can raise questions about a party’s preparedness, support, and campaign sustainability.

Are these simply isolated incidents or do they reflect the pressures the COI now face?

Third parties often operate without the financial support, organisational experience, and institutional backing of the major parties. Candidates may find themselves navigating demanding campaigns with limited resources.

The COI now faces a perception challenge from voters. Replacing candidates quickly, as it has done with Karen Butler shows the party’s quick responsiveness, but repeated withdrawals can test public confidence.

As the election season approaches, voters will be watching the party’s unity and strength.

For decades, politics here has largely been a contest between the Progressive Liberal Party and the Free National Movement. Governance has alternated between the two major parties.

When voters grow frustrated with one, they turn to the other, hoping for change.

But a growing number of Bahamians, especially online, argue there is little difference at all.

Some Coalition of Independent supporters even fuse the names into one label: “PLPFNM.” The message is blunt and clear: two sides of the same coin, meaning different colours and similar results.

That sentiment has fueled interest in the Coalition of Independents, led by Lincoln Bain, whose social media presence is strong and whose supporters say they are tired of the traditional duopoly. For them, voting outside the two major parties is about protest and winning the government.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Philip Brave Davis is seeking another term, arguing his administration has delivered stability and recovery. On the other side, Michael Pintard, now leading the FNM, presents himself as a renewed alternative, hoping to convince voters that his party represents a different direction.

So what is the wisest choice for voters who feel stuck?

In the Bahamas, seats are won constituency by constituency, and third parties struggle to convert energy into parliamentary seats. A protest vote may send a signal, but it may not change who governs.

Staying home, some argue, is a form of protest, but low voter turnout rarely disrupts political patterns and often strengthens them.

Choosing between imperfect options is uncomfortable, but elections are about power — who gets it, and what they do with it.

For voters wrestling with “PLPFNM” fatigue, the real question may not be who is the lesser of two evils, but it may be, ‘which choice gives my vote the greatest impact?

In Pinewood, it will not just be a two-man race. Incumbent PLP MP Myles Laroda is seeking another term, but he faces a challenge from FNM hopeful Denarri Rolle and third-party Coalition of Independents leader Lincoln Bain.

With flooding frustrations, shifting voter loyalty and third-party momentum, Pinewood could once again prove unpredictable. It has a history of switching hands between the PLP and FNM.

It will become a closely watched battleground heading into the general election.

In 2021, Myles Laroda secured the constituency for the Progressive Liberal Party with 1,712 votes. The Free National Movement candidate at the time earned 937, while Lincoln Bain received 641.

That appears to be a comfortable PLP margin.

But Pinewood’s history tells a different story.

The constituency has flip-flopped between the two major parties for more than two decades. In 2017, Reuben Rahming won the seat for the FNM, defeating PLP candidate Khaalid Rolle. Since 2002, Pinewood voters have alternated between the PLP and FNM, making it one of the more politically fluid constituencies in New Providence.

That trend alone resists the idea that it is a “safe seat”.

The 2021 numbers also reveal another layer–If you combine the FNM and COI totals from that election, the anti-PLP vote surpasses Laroda’s total. The numbers show a significant bloc of voters willing to choose an alternative.

This time, the FNM has introduced a new standard bearer—Denarri Rolle, who is campaigning heavily on flooding solutions and infrastructure reform. Bain is also back, appealing to voters frustrated with the two-party system.

Laroda enters as incumbent, with a Cabinet label and name recognition. But he also faces continued scrutiny over Pinewood’s long-standing flooding issues, even as a $20 million drainage plan has been announced. But nothing has happened.

So is Pinewood up for grabs? Politically, it may come down to turnout, voter frustration, and whether opposition votes split.

If history is a guide, Pinewood is not loyal to political parties.

For decades, Bahamian politics has largely been a two-party system: PLP or FNM. Each election cycle, the government changes hands.

Now, the Coalition of Independents says it wants to break that cycle.

Led by Lincoln Bain, the party has ratified a full slate of candidates ahead of the next general election. Online, the movement generates strong reactions. Supporters say it represents fresh leadership and a clean break from traditional politics.

Critics argue history is not on their side.

The reality is that no third party has ever won a seat in Parliament.

In the Bahamas, you need a majority of votes to win a constituency. In close races, even a few hundred votes can change the outcome. But those same few hundred votes can also prevent a third party from overtaking the two dominant machines.

In the November by-election, the Coalition’s candidate received just over 200 votes. That’s not insignificant. In a tight race, 200 votes can matter, but it’s still far from victory.

To break the two-party grip, the party would need strong ground support, voter turnout at the polls and candidates in winnable seats.

There is also the experience question. The COI’s slate is largely new to governance. Some voters see that as refreshing, and others say it is risky.

Still, many are frustrated with the PLP and FNM cycles.

The bigger question is, can it siphon enough votes to reshape tight constituencies?

In 2026, the two-party era is facing one of its hardest challenges in years.

With the Golden Isles by-election set for Monday, the race has taken on a highly personal tone, as former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham has injected himself directly into the fray.

On Friday night, the former Free National Movement leader made a rare public appearance to endorse Brian Brown.

Known throughout the country as “Papa,” Ingraham revealed that he had originally advised the FNM not to contest the by-election, suggesting the party should instead wait for the general election.

But Brown refused to wait, insisting Golden Isles deserved representation now. It was that decision, Ingraham said, that earned his full support.

Ahead of the rally, the FNM announced his arrival in two words: “Papa reach.”

The phrase was widely interpreted as a direct response to Prime Minister Philip Davis saying he is often referred to by supporters as “Daddy”, which is a label that recently intensified after the returning officer, Neil Campbell, compared his relationship with Davis to that of a father and son.

Taking the stage, Ingraham leaned into the moment: “Fellow FNM’s, I hear Daddy been there. Well, Papa reach.

“Just a word of advice to Brave (Davis) my friend, Fox and Sebas (businessmen in the number business) does call Perry Christie (PLP Former Prime Minister) daddy.

“A word of advice is enough.”

Ingraham later praised Brown’s loyalty to the community, noting he kept his constituency office open even after losing in 2021, and compared Brown’s future to that of the late Frank Watson.

But by Saturday night, a third person entered the debate. Coalition of Independents leader, Lincoln Bain, held a rally of his own, rejecting both political labels.

Bain addressed the crowd saying:

“Philip Davis, catch yourself. Hubert Ingraham, catch yourself…Time to stop worshipping these people. They are not your father. It’s time to take our country back.”

His message reframed the conversation as the Bahamian people versus worship of political figures.

As voters prepare to head to the polls on Monday, this by-election has become a national conversation about loyalty and leadership.

The third-party Coalition of Independents, led by Lincoln Bain, is hoping to gain a majority of the seats in the House of Assembly at the call of the next election, which could come earlier than expected.

As many speculate that Prime Minister Philip Davis could call an election in 2025 instead of 2026, Bain and team have ratified 19 candidates on Sunday to represent constituencies in the Bahamas.

Though the Progressive Liberal Party and the Free National Movement traditionally dominate Bahamian politics, Bain thinks he can gain enough footing to become the next prime minister of the Bahamas, taking advantage of some voters’ indifference to the major political parties.

Third parties and smaller parties like the COI never win elections in the Bahamas, which will be a difficult feat for Bain.

Bain is the first to ratify candidates, boasting that “these candidates represent a new era of leadership in the Bahamas, as they are not career politicians, but instead, highly qualified professionals who have risen to the occasion out of their commitment to creating a better future for our country.”

Here’s a look at the candidates leading the COI:

1. Daniel Mitchell – Pineridge
2. Olivia Ingraham-Griffin – Free Town
3. Dexter Edwards – East Grand Bahama
4. Yvette Prince – Yamacraw
5. Graham Weatherford – St. Anne’s
6. Faith Percentie – Englerston
7. Trevor Greene – South Andros
8. Linda Stubbs – Mt. Moriah
9. William Knowles – Seabreeze
10. Maria Daxon – Bamboo Town
11. Charlotte Green – Carmichael
12. Tyrone M. Greene – Marathon
13. Daphaney Johnson – Fort Charlotte
14. Harold Roberts – Marco City
15. Donna Major – Elizabeth Estates
16. Antonio Bain – Bain & Grant’s Town
17. Sharmaine Adderley – Golden Gates
18. Veronica McIver – Killarney
19. Lincoln Bain – Pinewood

In the 2021 election, the group contested 32 of the 39 seats and did not win any seats, but captured 7852 votes in total, according to the Parliamentary Registration Department.

Troubled by recent headlines about his purported wealth of $1.8 million, Leader of the Coalition for Independents Lincoln Bain said in a social media post, that it is not an issue worth discussing.

“I don’t have a problem talking about my money….The real big story is not how much money Lincoln Bain declared because it’s the same amount of money I declared the last time.”

Bain, an activist, striving to become a politician, is making this his second attempt at the House of Assembly having thrown his hat into the ring in the 2021 general election where he received 641 votes, losing to PLP Myles LaRhoda who got 1712 votes and FNM incumbent Reuben Rahming received 937 votes.

As he runs in the by-election for West Grand Bahama and Bimini, his financial disclosures caught the attention of critics who questioned how he obtained his assets.

Bain who labelled himself a “businessman” on his financial disclosure, is the wealthiest candidate running in the by-election, according to what’s stated on the disclosure.

Seeking to clarify, Bain said on Wednesday that he owned many retail, wholesale and services businesses–shoes, clothing and weddings services.

He added that most of his money was derived from Information Technology services for the Tribune and the Bahamas government.

“I am an IT professional and the Tribune came to me to do their mobile apps and websites for 100 Jamz, and to do other IT [services].

“They have been my big clients and helping pay my bills for years. They have been writing cheques to Lincoln Bain.”

He continued, “A part of what I have is because I did excellent service for the Tribune,” making other claims that Bahamas Air was another client benefiting from his services.

“I manufactured medical supplies in China and sold [them] to the Bahamas government for the hospital and clinics, medical supply business with a government contract.

“I am well known for many retail businesses, I have owned–retail, and wholesale businesses in this country.  I  am one of the biggest producers of mobile apps in this country—probably. Probably even in the region.”

It is not known how many of these purported businesses are in operation. Bain claimed he retired at 32 years old.

His financial declarations stated that he has $41,000 in his savings account and $600,000 in real estate. His other personal items are worth $175,000; accounts receivable is $250,000; automobile is $20,000; real estate income is $42,000; and other income is valued over $50,000.

He then declared that a property was worth $1.8 million but did not declare a salary amount.

A 58-year-old Carmichael Road man was arrested Wednesday, held for questioning on threats to kill Prime Minister Philip Davis.

Police said this is still an ongoing investigation.

This comes after Police Commissioner Clayton Fernander suggested that Lincoln Bain Leader of the fragmented political group Coalition of Independents and his supporters have spewed incendiary comments possibly leading to the criminal threat.

Police have not revealed the name of the individual in custody or his connection to any political group, but Bain has since insisted he is not responsible for inciting death threats against Davis.

“I am not responsible for the words of any adult,” a defensive Bain insisted in a social media video post after Commissioner of Police Clayton Fernander in a press conference stated that the COI may be behind calls made to Davis’ office on Friday.

Bain and his supporters held a protest on Wednesday in Parliament Square protesting the influx of Haitian migrants, in which they blamed Davis and his government for not doing enough to curtail the immigration problem. One supporter is even seen swearing at Davis as he made his way to the House of Assembly under heavy police guard. And another man shouts for the police to “assassinate” him.

Bain insisted he was not present when the remarks were made. “It took place before I was there. It is not my duty to control anyone’s words.”

Because of two anonymous calls to kill the prime minister, Fernander said the Royal Bahamas Police Force would beef up security to ensure Davis’ safety.

“The threat level is high, based on the calls,” Fernander said as he insisted that the COI is “in line of inquiry,” as authorities conduct investigations

“Lincoln has to control his supporters.”

Fernander promised a meeting with Bain who seems to attract a growing number of Bahamians feeling marginalized by society.

Bain ran in the 2021 election and hopes to lead his group to the general election in 2024, pushing his far-right ideologies and extremist views on immigration.

In his quest to create ‘a new Bahamas,’ some of his actions have raised eyebrows.

Three days after charges were filed for unlawful assembly and obstruction leading to chaos in Parliament Square, the Leader of the Coalition of Independence took to social media on Sunday to provoke an attack on an officer he says is responsible for driving a vehicle that he said “hit” his supporter.

Lincoln Bain showed a picture of the police he called ‘Jarvis’, telling his supporters, “They need to be treated special if you see them around society.”

Bain and some members of the group showed up in Rawson Square on Wednesday to give parliamentarians a copy of their immigration proposal and wound up in a fight with officers when Bain was asked to move from the steps and work within the precincts of the square.

Bain resisted and was physically removed by a senior officer. Chaos erupted and he was eventually carried away in a police vehicle.

During the melee, his supporter Cara Ellis was seen standing in front of the police vehicle to prevent officers from driving Bain away, who was in the backseat. Officers standing on the outskirts then forcefully removed her from the passageway of the vehicle.

However, Bain, who says Ellis is like a daughter to him, says she was an innocent bystander and only stopped by to take video shots of him being carried away. “She is an innocent girl. She was just standing up taking videos.”

Showing a picture of ‘Jarvis’ he repeatedly said, “Cara this is Jarvis.”

Bain encouraged his supporters to share the picture of the officer. “I need their faces to be all over social media. Yes, this [is] the Haitian.

“When you’ll see him, love him up,” he said.

Bain, along with Ellis and seven other members of his group were detained and charged for the melee. They are now on $1,500 bail and will return to court on December 1.