election

Every election cycle, if a third party enters the race, some predict that it will break through with a seat in parliament, while others hold onto the belief that the Bahamas’ election remains Free National Movement versus Progressive Liberal Party.

The Coalition of Independents has ratified candidates across multiple constituencies. Its leader, Lincoln Bain, continues to generate traction on Facebook. The engagement is visible. The frustration with the two major parties is also evident.

But when it comes to the ballot box, history tells a different story.

In 2021, third parties did not win a single seat in Parliament. However, the numbers were not insignificant. The COI received nearly 8,000 votes nationwide, while the Democratic National Alliance secured almost 1,500.

That’s nearly 9,500 voters who chose an alternative.

Consider North Abaco in 2021. COI candidate Cay Mills received 719 votes which was the highest total among COI candidates nationwide. The PLP’s Kirk Cornish won the seat with 1,344 votes. Then-incumbent Darren Henfield of the FNM received 1,085.

It was a tight three-way race. If Mills had not been in the race and if even a majority of those 719 votes had shifted to Henfield, the outcome could have been different. This shows the impact of margins.

Supporters of third parties argue that momentum builds over time, not overnight. They say voter dissatisfaction is growing.

Skeptics say the Bahamas remains structurally a two-party system. They argue that when voters enter the booth, they ultimately decide between the government and the opposition.

The PLP and FNM have decades of ground operations, financing networks, polling agents and established voter bases. Third parties rely more heavily on personality and digital reach.

But elections are not only about who wins outright, but they are also about influence.

If COI vote totals rise meaningfully in 2026, even without winning a seat, that shows growing resistance to the PLP and the FNM.

If they stagnate or decline, it reinforces the two-party grip.

The real test will not be Facebook engagement, it will be the numbers on election night.

The Progressive Liberal Party is beginning to tighten its internal processes before the general election is called.

On Tuesday, eleven incumbents and aspiring candidates appeared before the Candidates Committee as decisions are being weighed ahead of the next general election, which is constitutionally due this year.

This round of interviews stood out because of the large number of hopefuls. Prime Minister Philip Davis also showed up himself. This sends a strong message publicly, and it can signal some type of readiness.

The group of potential candidates included former Senator Robyn Lynes; Ormanique Bowe (for Free Town); broadcaster Chris Saunders (for St. Anne’s); businessman Keno Wong (for St. Anne’s); Latorna McPhee (for St. Anne’s); and Bimini resident Tasha Bullard-Hamilton (for Bimini and Berry Islands).

Incumbents also appeared before the committee defending their records: Wayne Munroe, Wayde Watson for Bain and Grants Town, Zane Lightbourne for Yamacraw, Patricia Deveaux for Bamboo Town, and Lisa Rahming for Marathon.

Wayne Munroe, MP for Freetown, has framed his challenger, Bowe, as healthy competition, emphasizing unity over division. Parties nearing an election tend to manage internal differences carefully, knowing that public confidence often depends more on perception of cohesion.

“I always say that when somebody else steps up and is able to step up, that shows that a party is rich and has a defense. I happen to believe that I’m the best candidate to contest this seat, and that is what my position is, but it is her right to come and ask for a nomination, and I do not take it personally,” Munroe told reporters.

Bowe arrived with jitney buses of supporters and a Junkanoo rush-out, with shouts of “Wayne gotta go”.

“I am very confident, and like you say, the supporters show who they are behind today,” she said.

Candidate selection determines who carries the party banner, who steps aside. When these decisions are made, the path is smoother to election mode.

Davis’ appearance adds weight to the moment. It could mean an election is imminent, and it shows the party is positioning itself for the election before September.

Some of the party’s candidates will be ratified on Thursday: Sylvanus Petty, Kirk Cornish, Clay Sweeting, and Bradley Fox Jr.

Photo credit: William Mortimer

As the Bahamas edges closer to an election, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s move is turning heads.

Over the weekend, Mottley announced a snap general election for February 11, even though her government still had time left on its constitutional term. It is the second time she has done this with at least a year remaining.

Mottley is widely admired across the Caribbean and the world, and leaders have publicly praised her leadership style.

Mottley led the Barbados Labour Party (BPL) to back-to-back 30–0 election victories in 2018 and 2022. The Opposition is newly led by Ralph Thorne of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), who crossed over from the BLP in 2024.  Mottley has recently finalized her slate of candidates. DLP said it is ready to contest the election with a full slate of candidates.

This raises an obvious question for the Bahamas. The next general election is not constitutionally due until September. But the political temperature in the country is intensifying. VAT relief on grocery items is scheduled to take effect in April. New constituencies have been added. Candidates are being ratified. Campaign messaging is intensifying on social media.

Like Mottley, Davis also platformed climate change.

Like Mottley, Davis also granted legal land titles to people.

Like Mottley, Davis is also seeking a second consecutive term, though Bahamian voters have historically elected the alternate party.

The risks are big as early elections can backfire if voters feel rushed or are still not convinced that the government should be reelected. Prime Minister Hubert Minnis attempted it but lost in 2021.

But Mottley is showing confidence, and it remains to be seen if conditions are favourable for a win.

No election date has been announced in the Bahamas.

As speculation about an early election grows, one question is front and center: who really decides when the country goes to the polls?

Party supporters and candidates are debating the timing, but constitutionally, the final decision rests with Prime Minister Philip Davis. No matter how loud the public conversation becomes, the power to call the election belongs to him only.

Across the political landscape, signals of an approaching campaign are already visible. VAT is being removed from fruits, vegetables, baby food, and frozen foods starting in April. For many families, that relief is welcomed. But is this an election strategy?

At the same time, two new constituencies have been added, reshaping the electoral map. More seats mean more candidates will enter the race, and new campaign strategies.

Independent candidate Renward Wells has also jumped in the race. The PLP, FNM and COI are positioning themselves. Candidate announcements and internal disputes are already unfolding.

Some Progressive Liberal Party supporters argue that the administration should allow the term to run its course, finish ongoing projects, and avoid repeating past miscalculations of Hubert Minnis in 2021.

But while their opinions shape internal party discussions, they do not control the calendar. Prime Minister Davis does. He alone weighs political environment, legislative timing, public sentiment, and strategic advantage before making the call.

Whether he chooses to go early or wait until September, the constitutional deadline, the decision will be his, ultimately.

For voters, the practical reality is this: the election season is already here. With tax relief rolling out, new constituencies in place, and campaigns building, the political temperature is rising.

Stay alert. And make sure you’re registered to vote.

Rick Fox has announced that he will run in St. James, the new constituency, in the next general election. But it does not appear he is running under either major political parties, nor a third party.

With parties already having their preferred candidates—Owen Well for the PLP and supposed Shanendon Cartwright for the FNM, Fox appears to be entering the race as an independent.

Is this the right political move?

Fox says his campaign is about “responsibility” and “transparency,” not “politics as usual.” He argues in a social media post, “St. James is where my family lives, where I work, and where I have chosen to plant my life permanently. I didn’t choose St. James because it is easy. I chose it because it sits at the crossroads of capital, infrastructure, and national decision making, and because when policy works here, it works better for the entire country,” Fox said.

But politics is more than about ideas; it is also about power and influence.

By running independently, Fox separates himself from party politics. That is only attractive to voters who are tired of partisanship and want something different. And he presents himself as transparent, issue-driven, and free from political baggage.

However, there are real risks to his decision.

In the Bahamas, political parties provide the machinery that wins the elections, which includes voter databases, canvassing teams, funding (which he has lots of), election-day organization, etc.

An independent candidate would have to build all of that alone.

Even if Fox is elected, an independent parliamentarian could struggle to help shape national policy and conversation without the backing of a party.

Should Rick Fox pick a side?

Joining a party would give him access to legislative power and a better chance to push the energy reform he suggested, from the inside. A party’s backing would also strengthen his campaign.

There is also the “outsider” factor. Fox lived much of his life in Canada and is now settling in the Bahamas. For some, that could look like fresh thinking. For others, it raises questions about his roots and connection to the Bahamas.

Fox is making a bold bet that voters in St. James will choose his ideas over a party label.

As 2025 comes to a close, the Bahamas is heading into a defining year.

A general election is constitutionally due by September 2026, but political observers believe it could be called earlier, setting the tone for the country’s direction well before 2026 ends.

If it’s early or on schedule, the next election is expected to be one of the most consequential in recent memory for how the country moves forward.

What’s happening

Under the Constitution, Parliament must be dissolved and elections held by September 2026.

However, early election speculation is growing. Political activity has intensified, parties are strengthening ground operations, and messaging has begun to sharpen. These are all signs that an election may be called sooner than later.

At stake is the control of government for the next five years, during a period marked by economic pressure, public concern about cost of living, crime, governance, and trust in government institutions.

What it means

This election voters are weighing:

• whether economic recovery is being felt at the household level
• how crime and public safety are being addressed
• leadership credibility and accountability
• confidence in institutions and public services

For many Bahamians, especially working-age voters, the next government’s decisions will affect jobs, housing, healthcare, education, and national stability well beyond 2026.

Who wins could also shape how power is executed, whether governance becomes more inclusive and more transparent.

Why 2026 is different

This election carries added weight because of voter fatigue and heightened expectations from voters.

Many Bahamians are less interested in party loyalty and more focused on results, competence and policies that affect their daily life

That influences how voters respond to traditional political messaging.

What’s next

In the months ahead of the election, Bahamians can expect:

• increased political messaging and strategy
• policy announcements framed around cost of living and safety
• intensified scrutiny of government performance
• continued candidate selection and constituency strategy

If elections are called early, that timeline could accelerate rapidly.

The bigger picture

The 2026 general election is a national decision, one that could define the country’s priorities, leadership style, and public trust for the next five years.

As the country steps into the new year, the choices ahead will matter long after the campaign signs come down.

Rick Fox says the Bahamas Future Movement he recently launched, is not a political party.

The platform is demanding public answers from political leaders on election integrity, border preparedness, and transparency ahead of the next general election.

Some commenters under his social media post have questioned, ‘If it’s not a political party, what exactly is it?’

Philip Darville asked, “Is it an unfinished model for a political party or an NGO? There has to be a final end game to this…and it can be easily perceived that this movement will be a medium to manipulate voter sentiment towards one of the existing political parties.”

According to Fox, the Bahamas Future Movement is a nonpartisan civic platform designed to apply pressure on all political parties, without aligning with any one of them. Its focus, he said is not campaigning, but accountability, particularly in areas Fox says have been met with “silence.”

CLICK HERE: Take a look at Rick Fox’s platform

Unlike political parties, the “movement,” he says, aims to force engagement by publicly challenging leaders to state where they stand before campaigns begin.

Fox says the platform is a response to what he describes as a growing gap between decision-making and public explanation. He highlighted the rapid legislation on border enforcement around migration (the passing of the Smuggling Migrants Bill last week) and lingering questions about election administration as examples of where transparency, he argues, has fallen short.

Fox has also emphasized that he has not joined a political party by choice. He has said he will not offer loyalty to any party until key questions are answered publicly by all political groups.

His engagement with parties, he says, will depend on which leader is willing to explain their positions clearly and openly.

Fox said he plans to run in the upcoming general election.

If the Free National Movement (FNM) wins the Golden Isles by-election in November, it won’t change who governs, but it could change the political mood of the country heading into the next general election.

Here’s what that could mean:

1. The PLP stays in power, but the mood shifts

Even with an FNM victory, the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) would still command a strong majority in Parliament. But politically, perception matters.

A loss could shake confidence in the governing party and prompt swing voters to pay closer attention to the Opposition.

2. The Opposition gets a confidence boost

A win would signal that the FNM’s message is resonating again since its 2021 defeat.

It could energize supporters, attract new donors, and quiet critics who question the party’s readiness to return to government.

More importantly, it gives Pintard momentum and a narrative that the tide is turning in his favor. This would be his first by-election win, strengthening his credibility both within the party and with the wider public.

3. A warning shot for the Government

By-elections often serve as a report card for the sitting government.

If Golden Isles flips, it would suggest voter frustration with the cost of living, lack of opportunities, or a sense that progress is not being felt.

It would force the PLP to adjust its message, refocus its campaign strategy, and reconnect with disenchanted voters ahead of the 2026 election.

The bottom line

An FNM win wouldn’t change the balance of power, but it would change the political mood.

It would show that voters are restless and that the Opposition is gaining ground.

We can expect a more competitive, energized run-up to the next general election.

For the second time since his ratification in June, Dr. Nicholas Fox, the Free National Movement’s (FNM) candidate for Fox Hill, says thieves broke into his medical clinic — a place he calls “a space of healing.”

Police confirmed the early-morning break-in around 1 a.m. Saturday at Fox’s Collins Avenue office. Officers said when they arrived, the suspects were still inside.

“A male suspect was observed inside the building,” police said. “Upon seeing the officers, he exited the roof and attempted to flee. A short chase ensued, but officers apprehended the 25-year-old male, who had cash and other property belonging to the business.”

Fox later posted a short video of the damage– broken glass, scattered papers, and torn doors, saying, “Again, they broke into my clinic. They came in through the ceiling. They ransacked the clinic.”

Click here to watch the video: The break-in at Fox’s clinic

This is not the first time his practice has been hit. Just three days after his ratification in June, his office was vandalized. At the time, Fox said he believed it may have been an attempt to intimidate him as a new political candidate.

In a statement Saturday night, Fox said he was alerted to the break-in by his alarm company.

“This has been the second burglary incident since my ratification for the Free National Movement,” he said. “I am not discouraged, but disappointed that someone would destroy a place where people come for medical care.”

Fox said repairs were underway to minimize disruption to patients, adding, “Despite the setback, I remain committed to providing quality healthcare and serving the Bahamian people.”

Why it matters

The repeat break-in can raise questions about whether political candidates are becoming soft targets for intimidation or opportunistic crime.

While there’s no evidence linking the attacks to politics, the timing which is twice since his ratification, can stir concern about security during campaigns.

It reflects a broader issue how candidates, especially newcomers, face personal and property risks while navigating politics where tensions can run high, and that those stepping into public life may need personal and property protection as well.

CEO of Verizon Media Group, the parent company of Eyewitness News Gershan Major rushed to defend the media house amidst public trust and credibility concerns after its owner Sebas Bastian was nominated to pursue his political ambitions.

Major said Bastian does not have “any direct operational oversight or involvement in the day-to-day operations of the company,” adding that the organisation’s tenets remain based on “facts, accuracy, and balance.”

Why it matters

Even without direct involvement, his ownership still shapes perception, coverage, and credibility.

Journalistic ethics dictate that journalists are expected to be objective and impartial in reporting the news.

Though Major argues that Bastian is not involved in the media house’s decision-making, as an owner of the media house, the question of Bastian’s influence arises.

The big story

Bastian has been ratified as the Progressive Liberal Party’s pick for Fort Charlotte, after rumours that he was entering frontline politics. In the wake of his entrance into politics, another owner of a competing media Wendall Jones spoke out, warning that a media executive mixing in politics should resign.

Bastian is not the only one blurring the lines between journalism and politics this election cycle. Robert Dupuch, president of The Tribune, and Clint Watson, former journalist turned press secretary and now general manager of the Broadcasting Corporation of the Bahamas, are joining Bastian on the PLP ticket.

State of play

Can journalists at Eye Witness News, The Tribune and ZNS stay impartial when their bosses enter the political arena?  And, can Bastian, Dupuch and Watson, if elected, also be trusted as policy makers?

Experts say key ethical safeguards should be followed if a journalist wants to pursue politics: Senior journalists and media executives should step down from their media roles to avoid any appearance of any conflict of interest. And, publicly declare any perceived conflicts of interest related to their political ambition.

Featured pictures: Eye Witness News