coalitionofindependents

When Iram Lewis walked away from the Free National Movement, a major political party, and aligned himself with the Coalition of Independents, a third-party movement, it was a gamble.

Now, he faces his biggest political test.

Running in Central Grand Bahama, a constituency long considered an FNM stronghold, Lewis is asking voters to choose him without the FNM party label that helped carry him to victory in 2021. Standing against him are Frazette Gibson for the FNM and Parkco Deal for the PLP—both backed by the major parties and machineries.

For decades, Bahamian politics has been driven by the two party identities. In stronghold seats especially, voters often align with the party. Lewis is now testing whether voter loyalty can be broken.

As a sitting MP, his move gave the Coalition of Independents presence in Parliament and a degree of legitimacy. But it does not automatically translate to votes at the polls.

If Lewis keeps the seat, it would mean voters are willing to separate Lewis from the FNM, and that his popularity can compete with the FNM political structure.

But if he loses, it reinforces a Bahamian political reality that the party brand still outweighs personality, especially in traditional strongholds.

It would also raise other questions about whether the COI and third parties can really compete for power.

For decades, Englerston has been firmly in the hands of the Progressive Liberal Party, with Glenys Hanna-Martin serving as its standard bearer since 2002. The constituency has long been considered one of the PLP’s safest seats, a political stronghold built on loyalty and consistent electoral wins.

But the 2026 race introduces a different dynamic.

Hanna-Martin now faces a new and fresh challenger, Heather McDonald of the Free National Movement, alongside Faith Percentie representing the Coalition of Independents and Ali McIntosh of the Bahamas Constitution Party. Neither opposition party has historically come close to unseating the PLP in Englerston.

In 2021, Hanna-Martin secured a commanding victory with 2,249 votes, while the FNM candidate trailed significantly with just under 500. Percentie, also in that race, received an estimated 160 votes, with a smaller share going to a Democratic National Alliance candidate.

On paper, the number of votes appears insurmountable, but elections are shaped by the mood of the country and the message. And this time, the broader political climate is shifting. Rising voter frustration, particularly around immigration, cost of living and governance, is becoming a defining feature of the national conversation.

For McDonald, the path may seem narrow, but not impossible. Englerston may still lean PLP, but in this election cycle, even safe seats could be tested.

With the general election set for May 12, the political landscape will shift into a high-speed race.

From the issuance of writs on April 9, the Progressive Liberal Party, the Free National Movement and the Coalition of Independents and their candidates will have just over a month to make their case to voters.

Short campaigns often favour the incumbent party, but all parties have been preparing for the election call, intensifying their campaigns and ground teams since last year, and have already ratified a full slate of candidates.

The Progressive Liberal Party, led by Philip Davis, enters this sprint as the governing party with mostly incumbent candidates with the advantage of a record. Government decisions and policies have already been in front of voters. They have already introduced themselves and, in a campaign launch last month, before Lent, defended their performance and reinforcing the PLP’s narrative of ‘progress.’

Observers say the advantage comes with pressure. In a short campaign, there is less time to recover from missteps, to shift voters’ perception, and fewer opportunities to rebound if issues like the cost of living dominate public conversations.

For the Free National Movement, the shortened timeline presents a different challenge, which is speed. The party has already introduced its slate of candidates in a campaign launch last Saturday, with leader Michael Pintard making the case why his party is the better alternative to the government, pressing that the FNM is ready to govern. With a full slate of candidates now in place, the task becomes sharpening and reiterating the messaging and ensuring that candidates connect with voters to build momentum.

Third party, the Coalition of Independent has built a strong social media base, explaining their party’s plans, and attracting voters’ curiosity. In a 34-day sprint, a shorter campaign can also work in their favour if they continually tap into voter frustration with traditional parties.

Ultimately, this election will be about which party can deliver their message most effectively.

Philip Davis is no stranger to Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador. As the Progressive Liberal Party standard bearer, he has represented the constituency for decades, first winning in 1992, losing once in 1997, and reclaiming the seat in 2002, holding it ever since.

The numbers suggest a PLP stronghold.

Challenging him this time is Free National Movement candidate Mike Holmes, a businessman with roots in Cat Island, and Coalition of Independents candidate Donna McKay.

While neither enters as the clear favourite, both represent different types of pressure for Davis.

Holmes is his strongest competitor in the race, and McKay is part of a growing undercurrent of voter frustration with the two-party system.

In 2012, Davis edged out the FNM candidate at the time in a competitive race, and in subsequent elections, his margins have remained comfortable. By 2021, he secured 876 votes, significantly ahead of his opponents, reinforcing the perception that the seat leans PLP heavily.

But this election is different because Davis is not just the incumbent MP, he is the sitting prime minister. That raises the stakes. His performance in this constituency will be a reflection of his national leadership.

McKay’s presence in the race can shift the dynamics, though third parties have historically found it difficult to convert support into seats. It is not known what the COI’s strength is on the ground in the constituency.

In the 2021 election, the Coalition of Independents made a headline-grabbing promise–$100,000 for every Bahamian. It was bold and grandiose, and for many, hard to reconcile with the economic reality of the country.

The elaborate figure floated publicly by its leader, Lincoln Bain, was staggering, estimated to be $40 billion in total for the country.

Heading into the 2026 election, Bain is offering something different, but also ambitious—Crown land for every eligible Bahamian, with legislation promised within the first 100 days in office.

So the question is how it connects to what was promised before.

For some Bahamians, it raises questions about Bain’s credibility and if it is feasible, while others, particularly COI supporters, see this as an evolution.

Where would the land come from, how would it be distributed, what qualifies someone as eligible, and how quickly could something of this scale realistically be delivered to Bahamians? are many questions being asked.

Voters are now asking what happened to the $100,000 promise and whether it still stands.

Big promises are not new in politics, and particularly around election time. They often speak to real frustrations about the cost of living, access to opportunities, and a desire for change. And for a third party, bold promises like these can be a way to break through a political system long dominated by two major parties.

As the election approaches, the COI faces a familiar challenge of turning these big ideas into believable plans.

For decades, St Anne’s has been regarded as one of the most reliable strongholds for the Free National Movement, a constituency widely considered a “safe seat” for the party.

But as the country moves closer to another general election, the race is drawing attention.

Incumbent MP Adrian White will once again carry the FNM banner, facing a challenge from Keno Wong of the Progressive Liberal Party and Graham Weatherford of the Coalition of Independents.

Historically, voters in St Anne’s have consistently supported the FNM. In 2007, veteran politician Brent Symonette secured the seat for the party. Five years later, in 2012, the constituency elected Hubert Chipman. Symonette returned in 2017 before stepping aside ahead of the 2021 general election, when White captured the seat.

In that race, White won decisively with 2,007 votes. Christopher Saunders, running for the PLP at the time, received 1,253 votes, while COI candidate Sheneise Miller secured 172. Candidates from the Democratic National Alliance and independents combined for just 82 votes.

For PLP Wong, the numbers reflect a long-standing political loyalty he hopes to shift. He has lived in the area for years, and says his deep ties to the community motivated him to enter frontline politics. Wong has argued that while the constituency has historically supported the FNM, residents may now be ready for new leadership.

White, however, remains confident. During his ratification, he pointed to his record in office and reaffirmed his commitment to advancing the FNM’s vision for the constituency, expressing confidence that voters will give him a second term.

Weatherford, new to frontline politics, the strength of his ground campaign remains unclear. But as frustration with the traditional two-party system grows, third-party candidates could siphon votes that might otherwise determine the results in close races.

In the span of two weeks, two candidates from the Coalition of Independents have stepped aside.

Central and South Eleuthera candidate Christian Heastie withdrew, with the party stating that his decision was based on personal reasons. Just last week, Valentino McKenzie for St Barnabas also stepped aside, with the COI citing personal injury.

The party has ratified Karen Butler to replace McKenzie.

Individually, these developments may be explainable due to personal circumstances, health matters, and life events, which can understandably interrupt a political campaign.

Watch Christian Heastie at his COI debut

Politics, particularly during this season, demands time and resources.

But when two candidate withdrawals occur in succession, how it is perceived by the public matters.

For a third-party positioning itself as a serious alternative to the established political parties, stability and confidence are critical signs for voters.

Candidate departures, even for legitimate reasons, can raise questions about a party’s preparedness, support, and campaign sustainability.

Are these simply isolated incidents or do they reflect the pressures the COI now face?

Third parties often operate without the financial support, organisational experience, and institutional backing of the major parties. Candidates may find themselves navigating demanding campaigns with limited resources.

The COI now faces a perception challenge from voters. Replacing candidates quickly, as it has done with Karen Butler shows the party’s quick responsiveness, but repeated withdrawals can test public confidence.

As the election season approaches, voters will be watching the party’s unity and strength.

Every election cycle, if a third party enters the race, some predict that it will break through with a seat in parliament, while others hold onto the belief that the Bahamas’ election remains Free National Movement versus Progressive Liberal Party.

The Coalition of Independents has ratified candidates across multiple constituencies. Its leader, Lincoln Bain, continues to generate traction on Facebook. The engagement is visible. The frustration with the two major parties is also evident.

But when it comes to the ballot box, history tells a different story.

In 2021, third parties did not win a single seat in Parliament. However, the numbers were not insignificant. The COI received nearly 8,000 votes nationwide, while the Democratic National Alliance secured almost 1,500.

That’s nearly 9,500 voters who chose an alternative.

Consider North Abaco in 2021. COI candidate Cay Mills received 719 votes which was the highest total among COI candidates nationwide. The PLP’s Kirk Cornish won the seat with 1,344 votes. Then-incumbent Darren Henfield of the FNM received 1,085.

It was a tight three-way race. If Mills had not been in the race and if even a majority of those 719 votes had shifted to Henfield, the outcome could have been different. This shows the impact of margins.

Supporters of third parties argue that momentum builds over time, not overnight. They say voter dissatisfaction is growing.

Skeptics say the Bahamas remains structurally a two-party system. They argue that when voters enter the booth, they ultimately decide between the government and the opposition.

The PLP and FNM have decades of ground operations, financing networks, polling agents and established voter bases. Third parties rely more heavily on personality and digital reach.

But elections are not only about who wins outright, but they are also about influence.

If COI vote totals rise meaningfully in 2026, even without winning a seat, that shows growing resistance to the PLP and the FNM.

If they stagnate or decline, it reinforces the two-party grip.

The real test will not be Facebook engagement, it will be the numbers on election night.

Carmichael is shaping up to be a rematch of unfinished rivalries.

When voters return to the polls when the election is called, they will see familiar names again, incumbent Keith Bell for the Progressive Liberal Party, Arinthia Komolafe now carrying the Free National Movement banner, and Charlotte Greene representing the Coalition of Independents.

It is not the first time these candidates have faced each other.

In 2017, Bell lost the seat to FNM Desmond Bannister. Four years later, in 2021, Bell reclaimed Carmichael, defeating Bannister with 1,922 votes to Bannister’s 1,603. That race also included Komolafe, then leader of the Democratic National Alliance, who earned 210 votes, and Greene, who received 155.

Now, the dynamic has changed.

Komolafe is no longer running as a third-party leader. She now stands as the official FNM candidate in the same constituency, facing the same opponents — minus Bannister.

That raises key questions: Will traditional FNM voters support Komolafe? Can she consolidate what was once a divided anti-PLP vote? And how much weight does incumbency carry for Bell?

Carmichael’s election 2021 numbers suggest it is a competitive constituency. If Bannister’s previous base and Komolafe’s DNA supporters align under one banner, the race tightens considerably.

But this election will also be about personality, the strength of the ground campaign, and national mood of the country.

Bell carries a ministerial position, which could be an advantage over Komolafe and Greene. For Komolafe, the FNM’s major party machinery offers broader voter outreach and infrastructure than she had as a third-party leader.

Greene could influence the number of votes if it is close at the polls.