byelection

Former Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis has suggested the Free National Movement (FNM) should never have contested the Golden Isles by-election, sparking debate over the party’s resources, confidence, and strategy heading toward the next general election.

“I stayed quiet throughout the whole process, but I agreed with Ingraham,” Minnis told The Nassau Guardian, referencing former party leader Hubert Ingraham’s earlier claim that he advised against Brian Brown running in the contest.

“One seat would not have made a difference…I did not feel that they could win,” Minnis added.

On the surface, the statement sounds like political hindsight.

He said he is not optimistic about the FNM’s chances going into the general election.

“Now, you are going into the real battle where the government has all its ammunition stockpiled and ready for you, and you are coming in limping,” he said.

“I don’t need to say what the result will be.”

The big picture

In The Bahamas, by-elections — like many around the world — tend to favour the governing party.

Government machinery often tilts the odds in its direction.

Still, opposition parties traditionally contest these races for one reason: perception.

By-elections are not simply about filling vacant seats. They are seen as political temperature checks — moments that reflect public mood, momentum, and party strength.

Golden Isles became a measuring stick for all parties.

Had the FNM followed Minnis’ recommendation to stay out, it may have signalled something far more damaging than a loss–a lack of confidence. Voters and observers could have interpreted such a move as surrender, division, or fear of rejection.

A closer look at the numbers

Despite losing the seat, the FNM captured 9 of the 17 polling divisions — more than half of the ballots cast across the constituency.

Brian Brown lost by just over 200 votes, turning what some may label a defeat into a razor-thin, highly competitive race in a swing constituency.

That is not a political wipeout. That is a warning and an opportunity.

The results suggest, the FNM still holds a strong base in Golden Isles. Low voter turnout likely hurt more than helped and a general election could easily tilt it in the Opposition’s favor.

Minnis’ comments may rest in emotions more than sound political strategy.

What’s at stake

If opposition parties shy away from electoral contests, FNM voters may feel abandoned or disconnected. Independent or fringe candidates could gain a greater footing, and voter apathy may worsen.

Political analysts warn that a democracy without competition is a fragile one, and a democracy where opposition retreats is an endangered one.

Low voter turnout is no longer just a Bahamian political problem— it is now a global phenomenon. From the recent Golden Isles by-election to polls in the Caribbean, Europe, and the United States, millions of eligible citizens are choosing not to vote.

The big picture

Across democracies, voter participation continues to decline. In countries like the United States, France, and Australia, turnout typically ranges between 50 to 70 percent, and in by-elections, that number often drops to 30 percent or lower.

In the Bahamas, the Golden Isles by-election mirrored that troubling trend. Out of 7,926 registered voters, only 3,873 people turned out—a turnout of just 49 percent.

This follows a wider pattern. In the 2021 General Election, the Progressive Liberal Party formed the government with the support of only 34 percent of the total voting population.

Why it matters

When citizens do not take part in the democratic process, the power of decision-making is left in the hands of a smaller group. This can lead to governments being elected by a minority while the majority remains silent.

Low turnout weakens accountability, reduces representation, and raises questions about whether elected officials truly reflect the will of the people.

In essence, democracy still functions, but with reduced participation.

Several factors fuel this global decline:

• Voter apathy and disillusionment
• Broken political promises
• Distrust in institutions due to corruption
• Confusing voting systems
• Economic and time pressures
• Election fatigue
• Digital engagement replacing real-life action
• Younger generations feeling unheard

Political analysts warn that without reforms, such as easier registration, early voting options, better education, and stronger community engagement, the problem will become worse.

What’s at stake

The continued decline in voter engagement has serious consequences:

• Legitimacy of elected leaders comes into question
• Policies may not reflect the majority’s interests
• Organized groups may gain disproportionate power
• Public trust in democracy weakens
• Young people become more disconnected from leadership and governance

The bottom line

Voting is more than a right, it is a responsibility.

Low turnout is not just about people staying home, it is a reflection of broken trust, lack of motivation, and a growing feeling that leadership no longer connects with the people it serves.

For the Bahamas and democracies around the world, the real question is how do we get people to care enough to show up at the polls?

Featured Images: The Nassau Guardian

When a by-election is called in the Bahamas, many people expect it to shake up Parliament or send a strong message to the government. But history shows something different. More often than not, the governing party wins.

Here’s why:

1. The ‘power of incumbency’

The governing party controls the machinery of state: the various ministries and the budgets.

And in the lead-up to a by-election, constituencies experience sudden road repairs, community clean-ups, street lights fixed, park upgrades and new social assistance grants.

These visible improvements become closely associated with the party in power. And voters may feel, “If they are doing this now, imagine what more they can do if we support them.”

2. Voters may not want to ‘fight the Government’

A by-election does not change the government but only replaces one member of parliament.

Many Bahamians may ask: Will my constituency be penalised or ignored if I vote against the government? And who will be able to bring more resources to the community?

So voters may decide that it is better to stay with the government, so the area is not left out.

This mindset benefits the governing party.

3. Turnout is usually low, which favours the government

By-elections typically attract fewer voters than general elections.

Who usually has the strongest ground game, money, and transportation on election day mostly wins

The government party can mobilise known supporters by providing rides and spending more on outreach.

Meanwhile, frustration or voter apathy can keep swing and opposition voters home.

So the results may not reflect the national mood but just who decided to show up.

4. By-elections are not ‘protest votes’ like other countries

In some countries, voters use by-elections to punish the government. But in The Bahamas, by-elections are often viewed as one constituency vote and not worth ‘rocking the boat’.

Without the power to change the prime minister or government, many people do not see the point in making a statement.

Darron Pickstock’s win in the Golden Isles by-election highlights a strong moment for the PLP and raises questions for the FNM as both parties look ahead to the next general election.

Click here to watch Darron Pickstock’s victory speech.

The big picture

The by-election, held after the death of former MP Vaughn Miller, was regarded as a litmus test for the governing Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). Pickstock secured 1,842 votes to Brian Brown of the Free National Movement’s (FNM) 1,629, giving him a margin of about 213 votes. Turnout was low.

Pickstock, a former senator, campaigned on a detailed 10-point plan focused on infrastructure, community development and youth programs.

What it means

The win gives validation for the PLP, giving them momentum ahead of the general election.

His ten-point plan directly addressed Golden Isles’ needs — roads, drainage, transport, youth engagement — which suggests voters responded to his concrete promises.

Pickstock’s win was narrow, which shows Brian Brown for the FNM remains competitive in the constituency. For the FNM, this loss could be a sign that more work is needed in strategy and messaging.

What’s at stake

Both parties will use this by-election as a gauge. Pickstock’s win strengthens the PLP, and Brown’s loss puts more pressure on its leadership team to deliver.

Pickstock now faces the challenge of meeting his promises. If he does not deliver, the FNM could reclaim ground.

Mobilising voters remains a major factor. How each party activates its base in Golden Isles will matter going forward.

What the Opposition is saying

Brown said he will continue the work in the community, and his office will remain open, feeding five hundred people for Thanksgiving.

“Thank you, Golden Isles,” he said with hands in the air.

Michael Pintard called the loss “a journey” and “a setback”, but the party will go on.

“This was a close race, and we fell just a bit short…There is a lot more work to be done in this country. This is but one leg to provide better governance for the Commonwealth of the Bahamas. The finish line is in sight. FNMs do not fold; we don’t faint. We will reevaluate, refocus, retool. We will be ready for the big dance, for the general election.”

He committed to inspiring voters who did not show up at the polls, highlighting corruption in government, the dire state of the healthcare system and rising crime.

Quoting the line of a popular song, Pintard said to FNMs, “Don’t worry about a thing because everything will be alright.”

The bottom line

Pickstock’s win boosts the PLP, perhaps, strengthens their mandate, and puts pressure on the FNM to recalibrate ahead of the general election, which could be called early.

Pickstock now has to deliver on his promises, and both parties must stay deeply engaged in Golden Isles if they want to maintain or change the political landscape.

With the Golden Isles by-election set for Monday, the race has taken on a highly personal tone, as former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham has injected himself directly into the fray.

On Friday night, the former Free National Movement leader made a rare public appearance to endorse Brian Brown.

Known throughout the country as “Papa,” Ingraham revealed that he had originally advised the FNM not to contest the by-election, suggesting the party should instead wait for the general election.

But Brown refused to wait, insisting Golden Isles deserved representation now. It was that decision, Ingraham said, that earned his full support.

Ahead of the rally, the FNM announced his arrival in two words: “Papa reach.”

The phrase was widely interpreted as a direct response to Prime Minister Philip Davis saying he is often referred to by supporters as “Daddy”, which is a label that recently intensified after the returning officer, Neil Campbell, compared his relationship with Davis to that of a father and son.

Taking the stage, Ingraham leaned into the moment: “Fellow FNM’s, I hear Daddy been there. Well, Papa reach.

“Just a word of advice to Brave (Davis) my friend, Fox and Sebas (businessmen in the number business) does call Perry Christie (PLP Former Prime Minister) daddy.

“A word of advice is enough.”

Ingraham later praised Brown’s loyalty to the community, noting he kept his constituency office open even after losing in 2021, and compared Brown’s future to that of the late Frank Watson.

But by Saturday night, a third person entered the debate. Coalition of Independents leader, Lincoln Bain, held a rally of his own, rejecting both political labels.

Bain addressed the crowd saying:

“Philip Davis, catch yourself. Hubert Ingraham, catch yourself…Time to stop worshipping these people. They are not your father. It’s time to take our country back.”

His message reframed the conversation as the Bahamian people versus worship of political figures.

As voters prepare to head to the polls on Monday, this by-election has become a national conversation about loyalty and leadership.

With the Golden Isles by-election taking place on Monday, voters are not just choosing a candidate, but they are choosing between four very different political directions.

Brian Brown

On the Free National Movement side is Brian Brown, a familiar and deeply rooted candidate in the constituency. Brown previously served as campaign chair to the late Vaughn Miller, ran on the FNM ticket in 2021 and lost. But he kept his constituency office open and continued working on the ground.

Now, his candidacy has the full backing of former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham.

Brown’s strongest appeal is his long-term presence and consistency. Supporters argue that he has already been serving the people, even without holding the seat.

Darron Pickstock

On the Progressive Liberal Party side is newcomer Darron Pickstock, who is campaigning on promises of upgrades to infrastructure, investment, and development. A PLP victory in Golden Isles would be seen as a strong public endorsement of Prime Minister Philip Davis’ leadership.

However, many critics question the timing of these promises, asking whether they came too late, and whether they would last beyond the campaign period.

Brian Rolle

Representing the Coalition of Independents (COI) is Brian Rolle, who is appealing to voters frustrated with the traditional two-party system. His message is rooted in empowerment, arguing that this election should be about returning power to the people, not political parties.

Karen Butler

Another independent candidate in the race is attorney Karen Butler, who is delivering a strong message about personal and economic independence. Butler said that no one’s livelihood should be tied to a political party, that Bahamians should not “eat when their party wins and starve when it loses.” Her message may resonate with voters who want fairness, and independence from party control.

So, who has the edge?

If voters prioritise history, familiarity, and loyalty to the constituency, Brian Brown appears strong.

If they lean towards governing power and future investment, Pickstock and the PLP could prevail.

If they want something different from the traditional political system, Rolle or Butler may prove to be the surprise and winning factor.

Voter turnout will certainly decide who wins.

After Monday’s chaotic close to the advance poll, we saw blocked exits, shouting matches, party lawyers stepping in, accusations of secrecy, and the Returning Officer Neil Campbell insisting everything was done ‘by the book.’

It is possible the chaos could spill over to by-election day on November 24.

Here’s what you need to know:

The tension was a result of mistrust in the system and due to confusion over procedures. There were disagreements about the transport and storage of ballots, claims about who was allowed to accompany the ballots, and confusion about where the ballots would be stored. If these matters aren’t clarified publicly before Monday, the same blow-ups may happen again, this time with more people involved.

That mistrust won’t magically disappear in seven days. It likely will intensify when the stakes are higher, and by-election day is as high as it gets.

Both the FNM and COI have already said things were handled incorrectly. And Campbell said everything was handled properly and they obliged when the parties disagreed.

That means each side will walk into November 24 with their own version of what ‘fairness’ and ‘trust’ look like. When varied expectations clash without the same rulebook, conflict is almost guaranteed to happen.

This isn’t just about ballots anymore. It plays on voter trust.

When voters see political parties blocking cars and arguing with police, it raises a deeper question: Will the final result — no matter who wins — be accepted as legitimate? If that doubt grows, the by-election becomes even more volatile.

What happened at the advance poll can spill over into November 24, because of mistrust, confusion, and the high political temperature.

Can the Parliamentary Department restore confidence before it’s too late?

Featured Image: Our News

Chaos erupted outside Remnant Tabernacle on Monday night as the advance poll came to a close. What should have been a routine transfer of ballot boxes spiraled into a heated standoff, with shouts and blockades over trust in the electoral process.

As the vehicle carrying the ballots attempted to leave the church grounds, the Free National Movement and the Coalition of Independents rushed to block the exit, forming a barrier. Party officials accused the Parliamentary Registry of violating the agreements meant to safeguard the voting process.

FNM attorney Khalil Parker said the confrontation exploded the moment those agreements were ignored.

“There are certain things we agreed on… the packaging of the votes, the destination of the votes, the escort of the votes. There was an attempt to take the ballot box in a vehicle that was not agreed on by the parties,” Parker said.

He insisted the ballots were supposed to leave in a larger bus, accompanied by representatives from each party, not whisked away in a smaller, unauthorized vehicle.

To cool the tensions, election officials eventually reversed course, and the ballot boxes were escorted as agreed.

Hear what Brian Brown had to say: Click here

But Parker said the night’s chaos was only the latest breach. Earlier, he claimed, word had spread that the ballots would not be stored at the Parliamentary Department vault, despite an agreement guaranteeing that location.

“We had mixed reviews and commentary all day that it was going elsewhere,” he said.

“Elections should be free and fair.”

FNM Leader Michael Pintard fired sharp criticism at the government, saying the standoff proved why vigilance is necessary.

“When you stand up, governments will do the right thing. We must continue to stand up.”

He also raised deeper concerns, claiming the returning officer was the former campaign general for Prime Minister Philip Davis.

“He is not the most appropriate person to be the returning officer,” Pintard said.

“We should make sure the election is seen to be fair. There are too many conflicts of interest… and we will not stand for it.”

Pintard said the FNM intends to inspect the vault where the ballots will be stored.

He ended the night with a stark accusation: “We saw unfairness today. Members of the PLP were interfering with people as they came to vote. This government operates in a way that fuels conflict and chaos.”

With just one week before the Golden Isles by-election, today’s advance poll offered the first glimpse into voter energy and exposed the rising tension surrounding one of the most-watched political races of the year.

A charged atmosphere outside the polls

Why the advance poll matters

1. It gauges voter energy

2. It tests campaign messaging

3. It sets the tone for byelection week

What’s at stake on November 24

1. Determine who represents one of New Providence’s fastest-growing constituencies.
2. Serve as an early measure of political momentum before the next general election.
3. Shape the narrative on key voter concerns like trust in government, oversight, cost of living, etc

Supporters Trade Chants

FNM Leader: “We’re Focused on Brown”

PLP Candidate: “All or None” When It Comes to Music

WHAT’S AT STAKE ON NOVEMBER 24

• Who fills the vacant parliamentary seat, replacing outgoing MP Vaughn Miller.
• The balance of political momentum heading into the next general election cycle.
• How voters respond to competing narratives on the direction of the country, leadership, cost of living, etc–issues that have been raised in the race.