brianbrown

Former Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis has suggested the Free National Movement (FNM) should never have contested the Golden Isles by-election, sparking debate over the party’s resources, confidence, and strategy heading toward the next general election.

“I stayed quiet throughout the whole process, but I agreed with Ingraham,” Minnis told The Nassau Guardian, referencing former party leader Hubert Ingraham’s earlier claim that he advised against Brian Brown running in the contest.

“One seat would not have made a difference…I did not feel that they could win,” Minnis added.

On the surface, the statement sounds like political hindsight.

He said he is not optimistic about the FNM’s chances going into the general election.

“Now, you are going into the real battle where the government has all its ammunition stockpiled and ready for you, and you are coming in limping,” he said.

“I don’t need to say what the result will be.”

The big picture

In The Bahamas, by-elections — like many around the world — tend to favour the governing party.

Government machinery often tilts the odds in its direction.

Still, opposition parties traditionally contest these races for one reason: perception.

By-elections are not simply about filling vacant seats. They are seen as political temperature checks — moments that reflect public mood, momentum, and party strength.

Golden Isles became a measuring stick for all parties.

Had the FNM followed Minnis’ recommendation to stay out, it may have signalled something far more damaging than a loss–a lack of confidence. Voters and observers could have interpreted such a move as surrender, division, or fear of rejection.

A closer look at the numbers

Despite losing the seat, the FNM captured 9 of the 17 polling divisions — more than half of the ballots cast across the constituency.

Brian Brown lost by just over 200 votes, turning what some may label a defeat into a razor-thin, highly competitive race in a swing constituency.

That is not a political wipeout. That is a warning and an opportunity.

The results suggest, the FNM still holds a strong base in Golden Isles. Low voter turnout likely hurt more than helped and a general election could easily tilt it in the Opposition’s favor.

Minnis’ comments may rest in emotions more than sound political strategy.

What’s at stake

If opposition parties shy away from electoral contests, FNM voters may feel abandoned or disconnected. Independent or fringe candidates could gain a greater footing, and voter apathy may worsen.

Political analysts warn that a democracy without competition is a fragile one, and a democracy where opposition retreats is an endangered one.

With the Golden Isles by-election taking place on Monday, voters are not just choosing a candidate, but they are choosing between four very different political directions.

Brian Brown

On the Free National Movement side is Brian Brown, a familiar and deeply rooted candidate in the constituency. Brown previously served as campaign chair to the late Vaughn Miller, ran on the FNM ticket in 2021 and lost. But he kept his constituency office open and continued working on the ground.

Now, his candidacy has the full backing of former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham.

Brown’s strongest appeal is his long-term presence and consistency. Supporters argue that he has already been serving the people, even without holding the seat.

Darron Pickstock

On the Progressive Liberal Party side is newcomer Darron Pickstock, who is campaigning on promises of upgrades to infrastructure, investment, and development. A PLP victory in Golden Isles would be seen as a strong public endorsement of Prime Minister Philip Davis’ leadership.

However, many critics question the timing of these promises, asking whether they came too late, and whether they would last beyond the campaign period.

Brian Rolle

Representing the Coalition of Independents (COI) is Brian Rolle, who is appealing to voters frustrated with the traditional two-party system. His message is rooted in empowerment, arguing that this election should be about returning power to the people, not political parties.

Karen Butler

Another independent candidate in the race is attorney Karen Butler, who is delivering a strong message about personal and economic independence. Butler said that no one’s livelihood should be tied to a political party, that Bahamians should not “eat when their party wins and starve when it loses.” Her message may resonate with voters who want fairness, and independence from party control.

So, who has the edge?

If voters prioritise history, familiarity, and loyalty to the constituency, Brian Brown appears strong.

If they lean towards governing power and future investment, Pickstock and the PLP could prevail.

If they want something different from the traditional political system, Rolle or Butler may prove to be the surprise and winning factor.

Voter turnout will certainly decide who wins.

After Monday’s chaotic close to the advance poll, we saw blocked exits, shouting matches, party lawyers stepping in, accusations of secrecy, and the Returning Officer Neil Campbell insisting everything was done ‘by the book.’

It is possible the chaos could spill over to by-election day on November 24.

Here’s what you need to know:

The tension was a result of mistrust in the system and due to confusion over procedures. There were disagreements about the transport and storage of ballots, claims about who was allowed to accompany the ballots, and confusion about where the ballots would be stored. If these matters aren’t clarified publicly before Monday, the same blow-ups may happen again, this time with more people involved.

That mistrust won’t magically disappear in seven days. It likely will intensify when the stakes are higher, and by-election day is as high as it gets.

Both the FNM and COI have already said things were handled incorrectly. And Campbell said everything was handled properly and they obliged when the parties disagreed.

That means each side will walk into November 24 with their own version of what ‘fairness’ and ‘trust’ look like. When varied expectations clash without the same rulebook, conflict is almost guaranteed to happen.

This isn’t just about ballots anymore. It plays on voter trust.

When voters see political parties blocking cars and arguing with police, it raises a deeper question: Will the final result — no matter who wins — be accepted as legitimate? If that doubt grows, the by-election becomes even more volatile.

What happened at the advance poll can spill over into November 24, because of mistrust, confusion, and the high political temperature.

Can the Parliamentary Department restore confidence before it’s too late?

Featured Image: Our News

In the run‑up to the November 24 by‑election for the Golden Isles seat, the three main candidates have filed their financial disclosures as required and the numbers show significant differences in declared wealth.

Among them, Brian Brown of the Free National Movement (FNM) emerges as the wealthiest contender.

• Brown declared total assets of $2,627,657, an annual income of $139,000 and liabilities of $235,000, placing his net worth at approximately $2.39 million. His holdings include about $1.7 million in securities and investments, $780,000 in real estate and $50,000 in personal property.
• Darron Pickstock of the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP), filing jointly with his wife, reported $1.72 million in total assets, $430,000 in combined income and $425,000 in liabilities, for a net worth of about $1.29 million. His disclosures include two properties valued at about $850,000 and securities around $200,000.
• Brian Rolle of the Coalition of Independents (COI) declared total assets of $602,000, income of $37,000 and no liabilities, giving a net worth of $602,000. His assets include $65,000 in savings, a vehicle valued at $25,000, and personal property valued at $500,000.
• Independent candidate Karen Kim Butler reported assets of $477,000, income of $54,500 and liabilities of $160,000 — resulting in a net worth of around $531,340. The filing lists two properties totaling $450,000, a motor vehicle valued at $20,000, and life insurance valued at $7,000.

These disclosures were made under the Parliamentary Elections Act ahead of the by‑election triggered by the death of the sitting MP, Vaughn Miller.

These numbers give voters a clear snapshot of the candidates’ financial positions, as the campaign intensifies in Golden Isles.

The financial disclosure is just one factor in the election.

A November 24^th date has been set for the anticipated Golden Isles by-election following the death of Vaughn Miller.

Three contenders are on the ticket—Brian Brown for the Free National Movement; Senator Darron Pickstock for the Progressive Liberal Party; and Brian Rolle for the Coalition of Independents.

Brown ran in the area last election but lost to Miller, who crossed the aisle to the PLP, criticizing the FNM’s leadership at the time. Brown, served as the FNM’s Golden Isle association chair from 2010 and has been canvassing the area for some time, according to supporters.

However, it still remains to be seen if the FNM will contest the seat since a general election looms in a few months.

Pickstock was introduced to the area this week, following his ratification last Thursday.

Rolle, representing a third party, is reported to be a resident of Golden Isles.

The race could serve as a mid term report for the PLP, testing their popularity following public frustrations and the high cost of living, and the FNM’s ability to reconnect with voters in a key swing seat.

Golden Isles has shifted between parties in the two elections, and could set a trend for the 2026 General Election.

The outcome could signal voter sentiment and set the tone until the election, which could be called by May.

The Progressive Liberal Party’s nomination of Senator Darron Pickstock and the Free National Movement’s nomination of Brian Brown for the Golden Isles by-election could be the first real test of the PLP and FNM’s political strength ahead of the next general election.

Golden Isles is a key battleground that was once represented by both political parties in recent elections, first in 2017 as an FNM, but crossed over to the PLP in 2019 when Member of Parliament Vaughn Miller crossed the floor to become a PLP; then voting for him again in 2021.

Miller, before his unexpected death, faced harsh criticism from constituents who were dissatisfied with his performance and were advocating for a new representative ahead of the general election. Reports circulated that he considered not running again.

For the PLP, Pickstock appears to be a fresh face. However, Brown, who has been the FNM’s constituency chairman since 2010, has worked in the constituency and is the FNM’s best chance to regain ground in the constituency.

Every campaign has a defining moment that signals its direction, and the momentum in the by-election can boost the PLP and FNM’s campaigns at the 2026 polls.

Here’s why Darron Pickstock and Brian Brown matter:

1. A midterm report card

This by-election can measure how voters feel about the Davis administration’s performance so far, from the cost-of-living to frustrations over its governance. The FNM could frame the race as a referendum on Davis. The PLP, meanwhile, will frame it as progress.

If Pickstock wins Golden Isles easily, it’s a sign the party still has a strong public trust and loyalty base. But if it struggles, it could suggest voter fatigue or dissatisfaction, and people see the FNM and Brown as the better choice.

2. Testing the ground

The by-election could reveal how well the political machinery of the FNM and the PLP works.

The PLP’s and Pickstock’s ability to organize door-to-door canvassing, voter turnout, and digital messaging will show whether its grassroots base remains sharp or if the FNM is gaining ground with Brian Brown, its own candidate, who is more familiar with the area and the constituents.

3. A spotlight on leadership styles

Prime Minister Philip Davis has faced growing criticism from unions and civil servants over delayed promises. Will this spill over at the ballot?

Voters may compare him to FNM Leader Michael Pintard, who can be considered a new generation leader, and try his style of leadership.

The bottom line

The wins and losses will either confirm the parties’ confidence or show early weaknesses in their campaigns.