thecoalitionofindependents

For decades, politics here has largely been a contest between the Progressive Liberal Party and the Free National Movement. Governance has alternated between the two major parties.

When voters grow frustrated with one, they turn to the other, hoping for change.

But a growing number of Bahamians, especially online, argue there is little difference at all.

Some Coalition of Independent supporters even fuse the names into one label: “PLPFNM.” The message is blunt and clear: two sides of the same coin, meaning different colours and similar results.

That sentiment has fueled interest in the Coalition of Independents, led by Lincoln Bain, whose social media presence is strong and whose supporters say they are tired of the traditional duopoly. For them, voting outside the two major parties is about protest and winning the government.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Philip Brave Davis is seeking another term, arguing his administration has delivered stability and recovery. On the other side, Michael Pintard, now leading the FNM, presents himself as a renewed alternative, hoping to convince voters that his party represents a different direction.

So what is the wisest choice for voters who feel stuck?

In the Bahamas, seats are won constituency by constituency, and third parties struggle to convert energy into parliamentary seats. A protest vote may send a signal, but it may not change who governs.

Staying home, some argue, is a form of protest, but low voter turnout rarely disrupts political patterns and often strengthens them.

Choosing between imperfect options is uncomfortable, but elections are about power — who gets it, and what they do with it.

For voters wrestling with “PLPFNM” fatigue, the real question may not be who is the lesser of two evils, but it may be, ‘which choice gives my vote the greatest impact?

In Pinewood, it will not just be a two-man race. Incumbent PLP MP Myles Laroda is seeking another term, but he faces a challenge from FNM hopeful Denarri Rolle and third-party Coalition of Independents leader Lincoln Bain.

With flooding frustrations, shifting voter loyalty and third-party momentum, Pinewood could once again prove unpredictable. It has a history of switching hands between the PLP and FNM.

It will become a closely watched battleground heading into the general election.

In 2021, Myles Laroda secured the constituency for the Progressive Liberal Party with 1,712 votes. The Free National Movement candidate at the time earned 937, while Lincoln Bain received 641.

That appears to be a comfortable PLP margin.

But Pinewood’s history tells a different story.

The constituency has flip-flopped between the two major parties for more than two decades. In 2017, Reuben Rahming won the seat for the FNM, defeating PLP candidate Khaalid Rolle. Since 2002, Pinewood voters have alternated between the PLP and FNM, making it one of the more politically fluid constituencies in New Providence.

That trend alone resists the idea that it is a “safe seat”.

The 2021 numbers also reveal another layer–If you combine the FNM and COI totals from that election, the anti-PLP vote surpasses Laroda’s total. The numbers show a significant bloc of voters willing to choose an alternative.

This time, the FNM has introduced a new standard bearer—Denarri Rolle, who is campaigning heavily on flooding solutions and infrastructure reform. Bain is also back, appealing to voters frustrated with the two-party system.

Laroda enters as incumbent, with a Cabinet label and name recognition. But he also faces continued scrutiny over Pinewood’s long-standing flooding issues, even as a $20 million drainage plan has been announced. But nothing has happened.

So is Pinewood up for grabs? Politically, it may come down to turnout, voter frustration, and whether opposition votes split.

If history is a guide, Pinewood is not loyal to political parties.

With the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) completing its candidate ratifications and announcing a full campaign launch at Baha Mar on February 16, attention is now shifting to when Prime Minister Philip Davis calls the general election.

Under the Constitution, the timing of the election rests solely with Davis. While the general election is constitutionally due this year, no official date has been announced.

However, political observers are increasingly pointing to the period immediately after Lent, which runs from February 18 to April 2, as a likely window.

One political insider suggested the second week of April is a strong possibility.

Traditionally, Lent is observed as a solemn period on the Christian calendar, and in the Bahamas, where religious observance is significant among Catholics and Anglicans, political leaders have often been cautious about appearing overly celebratory in campaign activity during this time.

However, there is no legal restriction preventing an election from being called during Lent.

When asked whether an election could be called during the 40-day observance, Office of the Prime Minister Communications Director Latrae Rahming declined to comment.

The PLP has already begun signaling it is ready to call an election. In addition to the national campaign launch, the party recently presented its ratified candidates in Grand Bahama, outlining development plans for the island and projecting momentum.

Calling the election shortly after Lent would allow the PLP to maintain campaign energy while avoiding accusations of politicizing the religious season.

As the campaign intensifies, the countdown is underway.

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WHAT’S AT STAKE ON NOVEMBER 24

• Who fills the vacant parliamentary seat, replacing outgoing MP Vaughn Miller.
• The balance of political momentum heading into the next general election cycle.
• How voters respond to competing narratives on the direction of the country, leadership, cost of living, etc–issues that have been raised in the race.