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Carmichael is shaping up to be a rematch of unfinished rivalries.

When voters return to the polls when the election is called, they will see familiar names again, incumbent Keith Bell for the Progressive Liberal Party, Arinthia Komolafe now carrying the Free National Movement banner, and Charlotte Greene representing the Coalition of Independents.

It is not the first time these candidates have faced each other.

In 2017, Bell lost the seat to FNM Desmond Bannister. Four years later, in 2021, Bell reclaimed Carmichael, defeating Bannister with 1,922 votes to Bannister’s 1,603. That race also included Komolafe, then leader of the Democratic National Alliance, who earned 210 votes, and Greene, who received 155.

Now, the dynamic has changed.

Komolafe is no longer running as a third-party leader. She now stands as the official FNM candidate in the same constituency, facing the same opponents — minus Bannister.

That raises key questions: Will traditional FNM voters support Komolafe? Can she consolidate what was once a divided anti-PLP vote? And how much weight does incumbency carry for Bell?

Carmichael’s election 2021 numbers suggest it is a competitive constituency. If Bannister’s previous base and Komolafe’s DNA supporters align under one banner, the race tightens considerably.

But this election will also be about personality, the strength of the ground campaign, and national mood of the country.

Bell carries a ministerial position, which could be an advantage over Komolafe and Greene. For Komolafe, the FNM’s major party machinery offers broader voter outreach and infrastructure than she had as a third-party leader.

Greene could influence the number of votes if it is close at the polls.

A sea of yellow and blue, lights, music and applause, the Progressive Liberal Party launched its campaign at the Baha Mar Convention Centre with energy. But beyond the spectacle, what new direction was actually placed before voters?

Prime Minister Philip Brave Davis framed the election as a choice between collapse and recovery. He argued his administration “rescued” the Bahamas from the brink, citing an increase in the national minimum wage, the signing of 60 industrial agreements, and a reduction in VAT from 12 percent to 10 percent.

These are measurable and political talking points. But they are also retrospective.

The speech leaned heavily on what has already been done, not necessarily on what comes next.

Davis contrasted his government’s record with that of the Free National Movement, accusing it of inconsistency on VAT and internal division. He framed his government as ‘stable’ and ‘engaged’ with the ability to ‘recover’.

That is a classic incumbent strategy to turn the election into a referendum on management.

Yet the lingering question is, ‘What is the second-term vision beyond “more progress”?

There was broad language about renewal, investment, fiscal credibility and job creation. There was mention of turning downgrades into upgrades and restoring confidence. But voters listening closely may still be waiting for an outline. What structural reforms are next? What specific cost-of-living measures are on deck? What does economic expansion look like beyond headline investments?

Campaign launches energise the base and define the party’s narrative. On those fronts, the PLP was deliberate. But when the lights dimmed, and the music faded, the event felt more like a defence of a record than the unveiling of a blueprint.

For loyal PLP supporters, that may be enough. For undecided voters, elections are often decided on who says clearly where the country is headed next.

If this campaign is about “choosing progress,” the next question voters may ask is simple, ‘Progress toward what, exactly?

In Pinewood, it will not just be a two-man race. Incumbent PLP MP Myles Laroda is seeking another term, but he faces a challenge from FNM hopeful Denarri Rolle and third-party Coalition of Independents leader Lincoln Bain.

With flooding frustrations, shifting voter loyalty and third-party momentum, Pinewood could once again prove unpredictable. It has a history of switching hands between the PLP and FNM.

It will become a closely watched battleground heading into the general election.

In 2021, Myles Laroda secured the constituency for the Progressive Liberal Party with 1,712 votes. The Free National Movement candidate at the time earned 937, while Lincoln Bain received 641.

That appears to be a comfortable PLP margin.

But Pinewood’s history tells a different story.

The constituency has flip-flopped between the two major parties for more than two decades. In 2017, Reuben Rahming won the seat for the FNM, defeating PLP candidate Khaalid Rolle. Since 2002, Pinewood voters have alternated between the PLP and FNM, making it one of the more politically fluid constituencies in New Providence.

That trend alone resists the idea that it is a “safe seat”.

The 2021 numbers also reveal another layer–If you combine the FNM and COI totals from that election, the anti-PLP vote surpasses Laroda’s total. The numbers show a significant bloc of voters willing to choose an alternative.

This time, the FNM has introduced a new standard bearer—Denarri Rolle, who is campaigning heavily on flooding solutions and infrastructure reform. Bain is also back, appealing to voters frustrated with the two-party system.

Laroda enters as incumbent, with a Cabinet label and name recognition. But he also faces continued scrutiny over Pinewood’s long-standing flooding issues, even as a $20 million drainage plan has been announced. But nothing has happened.

So is Pinewood up for grabs? Politically, it may come down to turnout, voter frustration, and whether opposition votes split.

If history is a guide, Pinewood is not loyal to political parties.

When Southern Shores Member of Parliament Leroy Major publicly threw his support behind Clint Watson, it came with a warning.

Major, who wanted to run again but was not re-nominated by the Progressive Liberal Party, said plainly that if the PLP did not choose Watson as its standard bearer, the party would “have to face him.” When pressed by reporters on his next move, his response was, “Watch the road.”

Now, the party has made its choice, and it was not Watson. Instead, the PLP ratified Obie Roberts, closing the chapter on this internal conflict. But in doing so, it may have opened a more unpredictable battle.

What happens now?

First, Major is no longer bound by party expectations in the way a sitting MP seeking re-nomination normally would be. Having been passed over and having openly tied his political future to Watson’s selection, he is at a crossroads. Major can fall in line behind Roberts and urge his supporters to do the same in the name of party unity. That would be the cleanest outcome for the PLP.

Or, he can choose the other option which is messier. Major’s language has left the door wide open to the possibility of an independent run. In Bahamian politics, that threat is never taken lightly, especially in a constituency as competitive as Southern Shores. An independent candidacy Major can fracture the vote, depending on his strength in the area.

Major’s warning, “watch the road,” could mean resistance, retaliation, or simply frustration because he feels sidelined. The ambiguity may be intentional.

The PLP now faces a balancing act: selling Roberts to voters and managing the fallout from those who support Watson, who feel excluded by the process. How they handle Major could determine whether Southern Shores becomes unified or divided.

After weeks of tension and speculation, the Progressive Liberal Party made its final call in Southern Shores, choosing Obie Roberts as its candidate and passing over Clint Watson, whose supporters had been vocal and deeply invested in his bid.

The decision does not settle whether the party is unified enough to win the constituency.

Obie Roberts spoke to reporters after his ratification, “You’re gonna have some persons right now who have some emotions after the decision is made. You can’t please everybody. But PLPs are PLPs’ ya know. They remain home. They remain faithful to the party, granted they’re disappointed or not.”

Southern Shores has been one of the most contentious constituencies in this election cycle. Emotions ran so high that supporters of both camps nearly came to blows outside a constituency meeting. Now that the decision has been made, the PLP’s immediate challenge is: Can Watson’s supporters pivot quickly and fully behind Roberts, or will the resentment linger?

That question matters because Southern Shores is shaping up to be a three-way race.

The Free National Movement ratified Donnalee Penn early. She has had the advantage of working the area, building name recognition, and campaigning while the PLP was still internally divided.

Meanwhile, the Coalition of Independents has put forward Kirk Farrington, who could siphon votes from either major party.

A fractured PLP vote could be decisive. Independent candidates rarely need to win outright to influence the result, but their biggest impact is taking votes from the other candidates. It is not known how popular Farrington is in the area.

Southern Shores voted FNM in 2017, then swung PLP in 2021, which means the seat is competitive, and voters are willing to change their minds. No party can take it for granted.

For the PLP, choosing Roberts closes one chapter but opens another. The coming weeks will reveal whether party leaders can cool tensions, rally supporters, and present a united front, or whether internal tensions will shape the result on election day.

The Progressive Liberal Party’s decision to ratify its remaining 13 candidates on a Sunday appears unusual and intentional.

As the PLP prepares to unveil its final slate ahead of Prime Minister Philip Davis’ expected move to dissolve the House and announce an election date, the timing raises a simple question: why on Sunday?

One possible reason is urgency. Ratifying the final candidates on a Sunday, one traditionally reserved for rest and worship, suggests the party is moving fully into campaign mode.

Sunday ratification can reset the political week. By finalizing candidates before Monday, the party enters the new week with its lineup settled and locked, its messaging aligned, its candidates ready to fan out across constituencies, and they make headlines on Monday morning.

The move may also reflect the party’s confidence. Choosing Sunday could suggest the party leadership believes the slate is settled enough to withstand public criticism, or that the internal conflicts have reached a point where delaying it is no longer necessary.

In a religious society, breaking norms can be read in different ways. Some may see it as practical, while others may view it as symbolic of how quickly the election clock is ticking.

This ratification marks the end of the preparation phase and the beginning of full campaign. Once the final candidates are confirmed, the remaining step is to dissolve Parliament, and that becomes a question of when.

In politics, timing is rarely accidental. Holding a major political event on a Sunday may highlight what many already suspect, that the country is drawing closer to an election.

The Progressive Liberal Party on Thursday night ratified 15 candidates for the upcoming general election, with the slate dominated by sitting members of Parliament.

Of the 15 candidates approved, 12 are incumbents, while only three are new faces. This lineup suggests continuity of government as the party pushes further into campaign mode.

Ratification formally confirms the party’s endorsement of candidates and shows who will contest constituencies under the PLP banner. While the move does not guarantee success at the polls, it is an important step in the election cycle and allows candidates to begin campaigning officially.

Incumbents have an advantage, including name recognition, established constituencies, and parliamentary experience. Several of the ratified candidates currently serve in the Cabinet.

At the same time, the small number of new candidates can suggest that the party opted for measured changes rather than a broad refresh of its team going into the election. The three newcomers were introduced in South Abaco (Bradley Fox), MICAL (Ronnel Armbrister) and St James (Owen Wells), indicating targeted decisions—new constituencies added to the electoral map, and a few parliamentarians the party decided to take off the ticket this time around.

Watch here the PLP ratification of its second round of candidates.

With fewer new faces on the slate, the party’s campaign is shaped largely by familiar figures. With no sweeping adjustments across the ballot, it is similar to the 2021 slate.

For incumbents, voters shift attention to their records in office, and campaigns focus more on past performance, constituency work, and visibility.

Voters may judge new candidates on their ideas and work in the constituencies.

Voters will decide the outcome of the campaign period ahead.

The PLP is expected to wrap up ratifications in other constituencies as preparations for the general election intensify.

Member of Parliament for Southern Shores Leroy Major has said very little, but what he has said is loud. After confirming that he wrote to the Progressive Liberal Party seeking renomination and was declined, Major made it clear that he is not stepping quietly back. Asked whether he would run as an independent, his response was: “Watch the road.”

His statement does not suggest healthy political “competition,” as Mitchell stated of the tension in the party. It suggests unresolved conflict.

The PLP is weighing two aspirants for Southern Shores–ZNS General Manager Clint Watson and PLP Vice Chairman Obie Roberts, while the sitting MP, Major, remains public and seemingly defiant. Major said openly to reporters that he supports Watson, and warned that if the party goes another direction, “they have to face me.”

That is not the language of a settled internal process.

Party Chairman Fred Mitchell has sought to calm concerns, framing the situation in Southern Shore as ordinary competition within the party. However, Major’s recent statement further complicates this message. Supporters of both Watson and Roberts nearly came to blows outside a party meeting, a clear sign of conflict that clashes with Mitchell’s careful wording.

Major repeatedly declined to clarify his political future to reporters, avoided direct answers about his political decision, and emphasized his loyalty only to the people of Southern Shores. He has pointed to ongoing constituency work, including distributing food assistance, as proof that he has not turned his back on residents. It’s possible he could run independently.

With the PLP expected to ratify candidates, Southern Shores could be a measure of party loyalty and unity.

Whether Mitchell calls it competition or not, these signs point to a division.

The Progressive Liberal Party is beginning to tighten its internal processes before the general election is called.

On Tuesday, eleven incumbents and aspiring candidates appeared before the Candidates Committee as decisions are being weighed ahead of the next general election, which is constitutionally due this year.

This round of interviews stood out because of the large number of hopefuls. Prime Minister Philip Davis also showed up himself. This sends a strong message publicly, and it can signal some type of readiness.

The group of potential candidates included former Senator Robyn Lynes; Ormanique Bowe (for Free Town); broadcaster Chris Saunders (for St. Anne’s); businessman Keno Wong (for St. Anne’s); Latorna McPhee (for St. Anne’s); and Bimini resident Tasha Bullard-Hamilton (for Bimini and Berry Islands).

Incumbents also appeared before the committee defending their records: Wayne Munroe, Wayde Watson for Bain and Grants Town, Zane Lightbourne for Yamacraw, Patricia Deveaux for Bamboo Town, and Lisa Rahming for Marathon.

Wayne Munroe, MP for Freetown, has framed his challenger, Bowe, as healthy competition, emphasizing unity over division. Parties nearing an election tend to manage internal differences carefully, knowing that public confidence often depends more on perception of cohesion.

“I always say that when somebody else steps up and is able to step up, that shows that a party is rich and has a defense. I happen to believe that I’m the best candidate to contest this seat, and that is what my position is, but it is her right to come and ask for a nomination, and I do not take it personally,” Munroe told reporters.

Bowe arrived with jitney buses of supporters and a Junkanoo rush-out, with shouts of “Wayne gotta go”.

“I am very confident, and like you say, the supporters show who they are behind today,” she said.

Candidate selection determines who carries the party banner, who steps aside. When these decisions are made, the path is smoother to election mode.

Davis’ appearance adds weight to the moment. It could mean an election is imminent, and it shows the party is positioning itself for the election before September.

Some of the party’s candidates will be ratified on Thursday: Sylvanus Petty, Kirk Cornish, Clay Sweeting, and Bradley Fox Jr.

Photo credit: William Mortimer

As the country moves closer to a general election, the Progressive Liberal Party wants to appear organized and united, based on comments from PLP Chairman Fred Mitchell.

Two weeks ago, reports surfaced about tension within the PLP over candidate selections, particularly in Southern Shores. Clint Watson and Obie Roberts are seeking the nomination, and it’s attracted public attention after a rowdy group nearly fought after a meeting, as each side contended for their candidate to represent the area.

The situation, as reported by the Tribune, several men had to step in repeatedly prevent a fight from unfolding and calm supporters.

Watch here the conflict at the Southern Shore constituency meeting.

Tempers remain raw as supporters await the party’s final decision after Watson and Roberts met with the candidate committee. Other reports have also surfaced regarding conflicts within the party as official candidates are nominated for the general election.

Mitchell’s response on Monday regarding the conflict was firm, stating there is no division. What the public viewed as discord, he described as “competition,” saying it is simply part of politics.

“Politics is about competition for power,” he told reporters. “It brings with it passions and energy, and, you know, people say things that they should or shouldn’t say, but that’s just part of the game.”

Mitchell calling the disagreement “competition” is narrative control. He knows that his words shape how the public sees what is happening, especially in an election year. When voters hear “division,” they think of disunity and instability. When they hear “competition,” they think energy, choices, friendship and political game.

Political parties often face internal battles in the lead-up to elections. By framing internal disputes as normal and healthy, Mitchell is attempting to protect the PLP’s image as a united party ready to govern a second term.

The PLP has ratified only part of its candidate slate, with more nominations expected soon, Mitchell said. The tension in Southern Shores could happen in other constituencies.

For voters, it remains to be seen whether everyone falls in line once the final decisions are made.

As election season approaches, expect careful language, more framing, and efforts to control the narrative.