freenationalmovement

For the Free National Movement, James Leo Ferguson’s victory in MICAL was the continuation of a political legacy interrupted more than two decades ago by only four votes.

James Leo Ferguson was unofficially declared the winner of the MICAL constituency—Mayaguana, Inagua, Crooked Island, Acklins and Long Cay—defeating Ronnell Armbrister of the Progressive Liberal Party.

But behind the result lies a deeper political and emotional story.

In 2002, Ferguson’s late father, former FNM Senator and Chairman Johnlee Ferguson, contested the very same seat for the FNM. He lost to PLP veteran Alfred Gray by just four votes—609 to 613—in one of the narrowest defeats in modern Bahamian politics.

Twenty-four years later, the Ferguson name finally crossed the line in the House of Assembly.

The victory could represent the completion of unfinished family political business and the continuation of a legacy rooted deeply in MICAL.

James Ferguson was also one of the last candidates ratified by the FNM before the election. At the time, he explained he needed to officially retire from the Royal Bahamas Police Force before stepping fully into public political life.

A former assistant superintendent responsible for Inagua, Ferguson entered politics already carrying name recognition because of his father and longstanding Family Island ties.

During the campaign, he repeatedly spoke about reversing MICAL’s decline, particularly population loss among young people.

“MICAL used to be the leader in this country,” Ferguson said during the campaign. “Let’s go back to our roots.” He pointed to airlift, water supply and communication challenges as critical issues affecting the constituency.

Born in Betsy Bay, Mayaguana, with family roots in Acklins through his father, Ferguson’s message centered on identity, restoration and representation.

In many ways, James Ferguson’s win felt like the continuation and completion of a political legacy his father nearly secured a generation earlier.

After weeks of tension and speculation, the Progressive Liberal Party made its final call in Southern Shores, choosing Obie Roberts as its candidate and passing over Clint Watson, whose supporters had been vocal and deeply invested in his bid.

The decision does not settle whether the party is unified enough to win the constituency.

Obie Roberts spoke to reporters after his ratification, “You’re gonna have some persons right now who have some emotions after the decision is made. You can’t please everybody. But PLPs are PLPs’ ya know. They remain home. They remain faithful to the party, granted they’re disappointed or not.”

Southern Shores has been one of the most contentious constituencies in this election cycle. Emotions ran so high that supporters of both camps nearly came to blows outside a constituency meeting. Now that the decision has been made, the PLP’s immediate challenge is: Can Watson’s supporters pivot quickly and fully behind Roberts, or will the resentment linger?

That question matters because Southern Shores is shaping up to be a three-way race.

The Free National Movement ratified Donnalee Penn early. She has had the advantage of working the area, building name recognition, and campaigning while the PLP was still internally divided.

Meanwhile, the Coalition of Independents has put forward Kirk Farrington, who could siphon votes from either major party.

A fractured PLP vote could be decisive. Independent candidates rarely need to win outright to influence the result, but their biggest impact is taking votes from the other candidates. It is not known how popular Farrington is in the area.

Southern Shores voted FNM in 2017, then swung PLP in 2021, which means the seat is competitive, and voters are willing to change their minds. No party can take it for granted.

For the PLP, choosing Roberts closes one chapter but opens another. The coming weeks will reveal whether party leaders can cool tensions, rally supporters, and present a united front, or whether internal tensions will shape the result on election day.

As speculation about an early election grows, one question is front and center: who really decides when the country goes to the polls?

Party supporters and candidates are debating the timing, but constitutionally, the final decision rests with Prime Minister Philip Davis. No matter how loud the public conversation becomes, the power to call the election belongs to him only.

Across the political landscape, signals of an approaching campaign are already visible. VAT is being removed from fruits, vegetables, baby food, and frozen foods starting in April. For many families, that relief is welcomed. But is this an election strategy?

At the same time, two new constituencies have been added, reshaping the electoral map. More seats mean more candidates will enter the race, and new campaign strategies.

Independent candidate Renward Wells has also jumped in the race. The PLP, FNM and COI are positioning themselves. Candidate announcements and internal disputes are already unfolding.

Some Progressive Liberal Party supporters argue that the administration should allow the term to run its course, finish ongoing projects, and avoid repeating past miscalculations of Hubert Minnis in 2021.

But while their opinions shape internal party discussions, they do not control the calendar. Prime Minister Davis does. He alone weighs political environment, legislative timing, public sentiment, and strategic advantage before making the call.

Whether he chooses to go early or wait until September, the constitutional deadline, the decision will be his, ultimately.

For voters, the practical reality is this: the election season is already here. With tax relief rolling out, new constituencies in place, and campaigns building, the political temperature is rising.

Stay alert. And make sure you’re registered to vote.

Rick Fox has announced that he will run in St. James, the new constituency, in the next general election. But it does not appear he is running under either major political parties, nor a third party.

With parties already having their preferred candidates—Owen Well for the PLP and supposed Shanendon Cartwright for the FNM, Fox appears to be entering the race as an independent.

Is this the right political move?

Fox says his campaign is about “responsibility” and “transparency,” not “politics as usual.” He argues in a social media post, “St. James is where my family lives, where I work, and where I have chosen to plant my life permanently. I didn’t choose St. James because it is easy. I chose it because it sits at the crossroads of capital, infrastructure, and national decision making, and because when policy works here, it works better for the entire country,” Fox said.

But politics is more than about ideas; it is also about power and influence.

By running independently, Fox separates himself from party politics. That is only attractive to voters who are tired of partisanship and want something different. And he presents himself as transparent, issue-driven, and free from political baggage.

However, there are real risks to his decision.

In the Bahamas, political parties provide the machinery that wins the elections, which includes voter databases, canvassing teams, funding (which he has lots of), election-day organization, etc.

An independent candidate would have to build all of that alone.

Even if Fox is elected, an independent parliamentarian could struggle to help shape national policy and conversation without the backing of a party.

Should Rick Fox pick a side?

Joining a party would give him access to legislative power and a better chance to push the energy reform he suggested, from the inside. A party’s backing would also strengthen his campaign.

There is also the “outsider” factor. Fox lived much of his life in Canada and is now settling in the Bahamas. For some, that could look like fresh thinking. For others, it raises questions about his roots and connection to the Bahamas.

Fox is making a bold bet that voters in St. James will choose his ideas over a party label.

The early signs around the 2026 General Election suggest this is shaping up to be a crowded, competitive race, with growing demands for accountability from voters.

New seats, new political battles

One of the biggest changes ahead of 2026 is the addition of two new constituencies St James and Bimini and the Berry Islands following recommendations by the Constituencies Commission.

And already, these new seats are drawing attention.

Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) Senator Randy Rolle and Carlton Bowleg, who was ratified by the Free National Movement (FNM) last year for what was then the North Andros and Berry Islands seat, are both reportedly eyeing the new Bimini and Berry Islands constituency.

Parties are moving quickly to secure support, and position candidates in areas expected to be closely fought.

This election is shaping up to be decided seat by seat.

Defiance inside the party

Another early signal is the growing number of candidates willing to challenge their own parties’ decisions.

In Bamboo Town, former MP Renward Wells has confirmed he will run as an independent after being denied an FNM nomination. His decision defies party leadership and adds another layer of uncertainty to Bamboo Town.

In Killarney, Senator Michela Barnett-Ellis, the FNM’s ratified candidate, is preparing to face the party’s former leader and former prime minister, Dr Hubert Minnis. Dr Minnis, who was also denied an FNM nomination, has said he will run anyway.

Barnett-Ellis has said she hopes to convince voters to “look to the future,” signaling that the race is about leadership direction and renewal.

PLP tensions in the open

The governing PLP is also facing signs of internal strain.

In Southern Shore, party members have been divided over who should be nominated, Clint Watson or Obie Roberts with reports of heated confrontations and growing dissatisfaction among supporters.

Internal party disagreements are not new in Bahamian politics. However, those tensions are visible, signaling a more volatile campaign where candidates are fighting not just their opponents, but also internally.

Accountability is resurfacing

Beyond party politics, accountability issues are returning to the national conversation.

Concerns over road conditions and hospital care are placing renewed pressure on the government to explain what has changed and what has not.

These issues are likely to feature prominently in 2026, especially as voters connect everyday hardships with leadership decisions.

Media narratives spotlighted by Pintard

Even the role of the media has entered the political debate.

Opposition Leader Michael Pintard has publicly questioned whether internal conflicts within the FNM are consistently framed as “chaos” and “infighting,” while similar disputes inside the PLP are often treated as normal political disagreement.

Whether one agrees or not, the critique reflects a broader concern about how narratives shape public perception and who is portrayed as divided or ready to govern.

Why it matters

Elections are shaped months in advance by candidate decisions, party unity, public trust, and the issues that refuse to go away.

The early signals of 2026 suggest the race could be unpredictable, highly contested, and deeply personal.

The ballots may still be months away, but the battle lines are being drawn.

In an election year, how the media describes what is happening inside political parties matters. Language can shape how the public understands the party.

That issue is now being raised by Opposition Leader Michael Pintard. He argues that when the Free National Movement (FNM) experiences internal disputes, headlines often describe the party as being in “chaos,” “infighting,” or “falling apart.” But when similar tensions emerge within the governing Progressive Liberal Party (PLP), the narrative is not applied.

Political parties everywhere face internal conflict, leadership battles, candidate disputes, and power struggles. But the language used to describe those moments can transform ordinary political tension into a public narrative of “collapse” within the party.

The FNM has often been at the center of that media framing.

In recent years, the party has dealt with former Prime Minister Hubert Minnis’ bid to return as leader, challenging Pintard, as well as a high-profile legal dispute that resulted in a Supreme Court judge ordering Pintard, chairman Dr Duane Sands, and vice-chairman Richard Johnson not to personally attack each other or other FNM members in public until a ruling is delivered.

These developments were widely covered and frequently presented as evidence of the FNM at war with itself. Even some political observers have said the FNM tends to “air its dirty laundry” publicly.

But does that mean other parties do not fight?

Or are their conflicts simply handled, and reported differently?

That question resurfaced following reports of intense confrontation within the PLP over who should be nominated in Southern Shore: Obie Roberts or Clint Watson. Party members were said to be in an uproar, with tensions escalating close to physical confrontation.

Watch here the fight erupt at the Southern Shore candidate selection.

This was not the first sign of internal strain. In 2024, Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis publicly urged PLP members to stop infighting, warning that internal squabbles could weaken the party ahead of the next general election. “How can we take on the FNM… if we’re busy fighting ourselves?” he asked.

The admission was clear: the PLP also struggles with internal divisions.

So does similar conflict within the PLP framed differently, as suggested by Pintard?

Journalists do not simply report events. They decide which details to highlight, what words to use, and what tone to set. Terms like “chaos,” “infighting,” and “falling apart” signal instability. They suggest a party cannot govern itself, much less a country. Meanwhile, phrases such as “internal disagreement” or “tensions boiling over” imply politics as usual.

Pintard suggests that this creates an uneven playing field: one party is portrayed as perpetually fractured, while the other is treated as experiencing normal political tension.

For voters, narratives matter. When one party is repeatedly framed as unstable and another as merely divided, the public forms judgments about competence, unity, and readiness to govern, even when the behavior is similar.

As 2025 comes to a close, the Bahamas is heading into a defining year.

A general election is constitutionally due by September 2026, but political observers believe it could be called earlier, setting the tone for the country’s direction well before 2026 ends.

If it’s early or on schedule, the next election is expected to be one of the most consequential in recent memory for how the country moves forward.

What’s happening

Under the Constitution, Parliament must be dissolved and elections held by September 2026.

However, early election speculation is growing. Political activity has intensified, parties are strengthening ground operations, and messaging has begun to sharpen. These are all signs that an election may be called sooner than later.

At stake is the control of government for the next five years, during a period marked by economic pressure, public concern about cost of living, crime, governance, and trust in government institutions.

What it means

This election voters are weighing:

• whether economic recovery is being felt at the household level
• how crime and public safety are being addressed
• leadership credibility and accountability
• confidence in institutions and public services

For many Bahamians, especially working-age voters, the next government’s decisions will affect jobs, housing, healthcare, education, and national stability well beyond 2026.

Who wins could also shape how power is executed, whether governance becomes more inclusive and more transparent.

Why 2026 is different

This election carries added weight because of voter fatigue and heightened expectations from voters.

Many Bahamians are less interested in party loyalty and more focused on results, competence and policies that affect their daily life

That influences how voters respond to traditional political messaging.

What’s next

In the months ahead of the election, Bahamians can expect:

• increased political messaging and strategy
• policy announcements framed around cost of living and safety
• intensified scrutiny of government performance
• continued candidate selection and constituency strategy

If elections are called early, that timeline could accelerate rapidly.

The bigger picture

The 2026 general election is a national decision, one that could define the country’s priorities, leadership style, and public trust for the next five years.

As the country steps into the new year, the choices ahead will matter long after the campaign signs come down.

The Free National Movement has nominated Frazette Gibson as its candidate for Central Grand Bahama. This follows former FNM Member of Parliament Iram Lewis sudden exit from the party.

Central Grand Bahama has long been regarded as an FNM stronghold, but his move from the FNM to the COI can trigger new developments in the safe seat and test the party’s strength in the constituency.

Iram Lewis’ exit changed the party dynamic

Iram Lewis, who previously represented Central Grand Bahama under the FNM banner, has since left the party and aligned himself with the Coalition of Independents, a third-party movement positioning candidates for the 2026 General Election.

Lewis is expected to contest Central Grand Bahama under that banner, forming what would typically be a two-party race into a three-way race.

Lewis, as a sitting MP in a traditionally safe constituency, facing the risk of defections, can introduce uncertainty by dividing voters who previously aligned under the FNM banner.

Central Grand Bahama is an FNM stronghold

Although Central Grand Bahama has historically leaned FNM, the party can take no chances.

The introduction of a third-party candidate, can change the dynamics. A stronghold can be weakened by vote-splitting, low turnout, and voter dissatisfaction.

Who is Frazette Gibson?

Gibson is a strong contender in Grand Bahama and was elected twice to local government for Central Grand Bahama, boasting of spearheading major projects in the area.

By nominating Gibson, the FNM appears to be prioritizing continuity and stability to ensure she maintains the stronghold. Gibson can refocus the race on the FNM and constituency priorities.